This is the time of the year when the European Commission makes its proposals
for fishing quotas in EU waters for the following year. The expert advice
(from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, www.ices.dk),
is that if stocks are to recover there should be a total ban on fishing
for cod in the North Sea, Irish Sea and off west Scotland. How have cod
stocks collapsed to such a parlous state? Overfishing is often blamed.
But a study of the key biological mechanisms by which changes in temperature
affect cod larval survival puts a new perspective on things. Rising temperatures
since the mid-1980s have led to decreasing survival of cod larvae in the
plankton ecosystem. Prey have become too small or are not present at the
right time of year, and the abundance of euphausiids, a rich source of
energy and vitamin A, is at an all-time low. The net result is that North
Sea cod have become more vulnerable to year-to-year environmental variation.
Overfishing is a major factor, but the decreasing survival rate of young
cod in warming waters has also contributed to the collapse in cod stocks.
Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North
Sea GRÉGORY BEAUGRAND, KEITH M. BRANDER, J. ALISTAIR LINDLEY,
SAMI SOUISSI & PHILIP C. REID Nature426, 661664 (2003); doi:10.1038/nature02164
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