30 October 2003

Arctic ice: Through thick and thin

Change in sea ice cover is one of the largest uncertainties in climate prediction but the primary mechanisms that control change in ice mass are the subject of much debate. Accurate simulations of change of Arctic ice mass are critical for the prediction of global temperature change due to increased CO₂. Until now, measurements of Arctic ice thickness change have been so sparse in time and space that interannual variability is unknown, and it has been impossible to predict decadal-scale changes. New satellite measurements now fill this gap in the data, for more than half of the permanent ice pack, and over a period of almost a decade. Dramatic interannual variability in ice thickness is observed, dominated by changes in summer melt. The results suggest that a continued increase in melt season length would lead to further thinning of the Arctic sea ice.

High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region
SEYMOUR LAXON, NEIL PEACOCK & DOUG SMITH
Nature 425, 947–950 (2003); doi:10.1038/nature02050
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