2
August 2001
Nature © Macmillan Publishers Ltd.
Head count: The end of world population growth?
There is widespread concern about the prospects of continued human population growth for social and economic growth and for the environment. But this population growth is not inevitable, and 'pessimistic' world population forecasts produced by the United Nations could be misleading. Lutz et al. present an alternative view, taking into account the likely changes in fertility in woman around the world, and the uncertainty involved. They calculate an 85% chance that the world's population will stop growing by 2100.
The end of world population growth
WOLFGANG LUTZ, WARREN SANDERSON & SERGEI SCHERBOV
Nature 412, 543-545 (2 August 2001)
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Demography: Uncertain population forecasts
NICO KEILMAN
Traditional population forecasts made by statistical agencies do not quantify
uncertainty. But demographers and statisticians have developed methods
to calculate probabilistic forecasts.
Nature 412, 490-491 (2 August 2001)
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