Abstract
Climate changes across the past 24,000 years provide key insights into Earth system responses to external forcing. Climate model simulations1,2 and proxy data3,4,5,6,7,8 have independently allowed for study of this crucial interval; however, they have at times yielded disparate conclusions. Here, we leverage both types of information using paleoclimate data assimilation9,10 to produce the first proxy-constrained, full-field reanalysis of surface temperature change spanning the Last Glacial Maximum to present at 200-year resolution. We demonstrate that temperature variability across the past 24 thousand years was linked to two primary climatic mechanisms: radiative forcing from ice sheets and greenhouse gases; and a superposition of changes in the ocean overturning circulation and seasonal insolation. In contrast with previous proxy-based reconstructions6,7 our results show that global mean temperature has slightly but steadily warmed, by ~0.5 °C, since the early Holocene (around 9 thousand years ago). When compared with recent temperature changes11, our reanalysis indicates that both the rate and magnitude of modern warming are unusual relative to the changes of the past 24 thousand years.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
$29.99 / 30 days
cancel any time
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
$199.00 per year
only $3.90 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
All LGMR and associated proxy data are publicly available via the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Paleoclimatology Data Archive (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/33112). Source data are provided with this paper.
Code availability
The MATLAB code used for the reconstruction (DASH) are publicly available (https://github.com/JonKing93/DASH), as are all accompanying Bayesian proxy forward models (BAYSPAR, BAYSPLINE, BAYFOX, and BAYMAG) used in this study (https://github.com/jesstierney). The iCESM1.2 model code is available at https://github.com/NCAR/iCESM1.2.
References
Liu, Z. et al. Transient simulation of last deglaciation with a new mechanism for Bølling-Allerød warming. Science 325, 310–314 (2009).
Liu, Z. et al. The Holocene temperature conundrum. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, E3501–E3505 (2014).
Shakun, J. D. et al. Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation. Nature 484, 49–54 (2012).
Snyder, C. W. Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years. Nature 538, 226–228 (2016).
Bereiter, B., Shackleton, S., Baggenstos, D., Kawamura, K. & Severinghaus, J. Mean global ocean temperatures during the last glacial transition. Nature 553, 39–44 (2018).
Marcott, S. A., Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U. & Mix, A. C. A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years. Science 339, 1198–1201 (2013).
Kaufman, D. et al. Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach. Sci. Data 7, 201 (2020).
Bova, S., Rosenthal, Y., Liu, Z., Godad, S. P. & Yan, M. Seasonal origin of the thermal maxim at the Holocene and the last interglacial. Nature 589, 548–553 (2021).
Hakim, G. J. et al. The last millennium climate reanalysis project: framework and first results. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 121, 6745–6764 (2016).
Tierney, J. E. et al. Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited. Nature 584, 569–573 (2020).
Morice, C. P. et al. An updated assessment of near-surface temperature change from 1850: the HadCRUT5 dataset. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 126, e2019JD032361 (2020).
Marsicek, J., Shuman, B. N., Bartlein, P. J., Shafer, S. L. & Brewer, S. Reconciling divergent trends and millennial variations in Holocene temperatures. Nature 554, 92–96 (2018).
Baggenstos, D. et al. Earth’s radiative imbalance from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 14881–14886 (2019).
Kageyama, M. et al. The PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations. Clim. Past 17, 1065–1089 (2021).
Brierley, C. M. et al. Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 mid Holocene simulations. Clim. Past 16, 1847–1872 (2020).
Park, H.-S., Kim, S.-J., Stewart, A. L., Son, S.-W. & Seo, K.-H. Mid-Holocene Northern Hemisphere warming driven by Arctic amplification. Sci. Adv. 5, eaax8203 (2019).
Tardif, R. et al. Last Millennium Reanalysis with an expanded proxy database and seasonal proxy modeling. Clim. Past 15, 1251–1273 (2019).
Tierney, J. E. & Tingley, M. P. A Bayesian, spatially-varying calibration model for the TEX86 proxy. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 127, 83–106 (2014).
Tierney, J. E. & Tingley, M. P. BAYSPLINE: a new calibration for the alkenone paleothermometer. Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol. 33, 281–301 (2018).
Malevich, S. B., Vetter, L. & Tierney, J. E. Global core top calibration of δ18o in planktic foraminifera to sea surface temperature. Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol. 34, 1292–1315 (2019).
Tierney, J. E., Malevich, S. B., Gray, W., Vetter, L. & Thirumalai, K. Bayesian calibration of the Mg/Ca paleothermometer in planktic foraminifera. Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol. 34, 2005–2030 (2019).
Brady, E. et al. The connected isotopic water cycle in the community Earth system model version 1. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys. 11, 2547–2566 (2019).
Amrhein, D. E., Hakim, G. J. & Parsons, L. A. Quantifying structural uncertainty in paleoclimate data assimilation with an application to the last millennium. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2020GL090485 (2020).
Köhler, P., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Schmitt, J., Stocker, T. F. & Fischer, H. A 156 kyr smoothed history of the atmospheric greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O and their radiative forcing. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 9, 363–387 (2017).
Braconnot, P. & Kageyama, M. Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140424 (2015).
Berger, A. Long-term variations of daily insolation and quaternary climatic changes. J. Atmos. Sci. 35, 2362–2367 (1978).
Huybers, P. & Denton, G. Antarctic temperature at orbital timescales controlled by local summer duration. Nat. Geosci. 1, 787–792 (2008).
Imbrie, J. et al. On the structure and origin of major glaciation cycles 1. Linear responses to Milankovitch forcing. Paleoceanography 7, 701–738 (1992).
McManus, J. F., Francois, R., Gherardi, J.-M., Keigwin, L. D. & Brown-Leger, S. Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes. Nature 428, 834–837 (2004).
Böhm, E. et al. Strong and deep Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last glacial cycle. Nature 517, 73–76 (2015).
Lippold, J. et al. Constraining the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the Holocene. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 11338–11346 (2019).
Shakun, J. D. & Carlson, A. E. A global perspective on Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene climate change. Quat. Sci. Rev. 29, 1801–1816 (2010).
Clark, P. U. et al. Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, E1134–E1142 (2012).
Pedro, J. B. et al. Beyond the bipolar seesaw: toward a process understanding of interhemispheric coupling. Quat. Sci. Rev. 192, 27–46 (2018).
He, F. et al. Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation. Nature 494, 81–85 (2013).
Ritz, S. P., Stocker, T. F., Grimalt, J. O., Menviel, L. & Timmermann, A. Estimated strength of the Atlantic overturning circulation during the last deglaciation. Nat. Geosci. 6, 208–212 (2013).
Praetorius, S. K. et al. The role of Northeast Pacific meltwater events in deglacial climate change. Sci. Adv. 6, eaay2915 (2020).
Gray, W. R. et al. Wind-driven evolution of the North Pacific subpolar gyre over the last deglaciation. Geophys. Res. Lett.47, e2019GL086328 (2020).
Reimer, P. J. et al. IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0–50,000 years cal BP. Radiocarbon 55, 1869–1887 (2013).
Blaauw, M. & Christen, J. A. Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process. Bayesian Anal. 6, 457–474 (2011).
Locarnini, R. A. et al. World Ocean Atlas 2013. Volume 1, Temperature (NOAA, 2013).
Wang, K. J. et al. Group 2i Isochrysidales produce characteristic alkenones reflecting sea ice distribution. Nat. Commun. 12, 15 (2021).
Sachs, J. P. Cooling of Northwest Atlantic slope waters during the Holocene. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L03609 (2007).
Tierney, J. E., Haywood, A. M., Feng, R., Bhattacharya, T. & Otto-Bliesner, B. L. Pliocene warmth consistent with greenhouse gas forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 9136–9144 (2019).
Rayner, N. A. et al. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. 108, 4407 (2003).
Gray, W. R. & Evans, D. Nonthermal influences on Mg/Ca in planktonic foraminifera: a review of culture studies and application to the Last Glacial Maximum. Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol. 34, 306–315 (2019).
Lambeck, K., Rouby, H., Purcell, A., Sun, Y. & Sambridge, M. Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 15296–15303 (2014).
Monnin, E. et al. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the Last Glacial Termination. Science 291, 112–114 (2001).
MacFarling Meure, C. et al. Law Dome CO2, CH4 and N2O ice core records extended to 2000 years BP. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L14810 (2006).
Rubino, M. et al. A revised 1000-year atmospheric 13C-CO2 record from Law Dome and South Pole, Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 8482–8499 (2013).
Marcott, S. A. et al. Centennial-scale changes in the global carbon cycle during the last deglaciation. Nature 514, 616–619 (2014).
Ahn, J. & Brook, E. J. Siple Dome ice reveals two modes of millennial CO2 change during the last ice age. Nat. Commun. 5, 3723 (2014).
Bereiter, B. et al. Revision of the EPICA Dome C CO2 record from 800 to 600 kyr before present. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 542–549 (2015).
Olsen, A. et al. The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project version 2 (GLODAPv2) – an internally consistent data product for the world ocean. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 8, 297–323 (2016).
Lisiecki, L. E. & Raymo, M. E. A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records. Paleoceanography 20, PA1003 (2005).
Schrag, D. P., Hampt, G. & Murray, D. W. Pore fluid constraints on the temperature and oxygen isotopic composition of the glacial ocean. Science 272, 1930–1932 (1996).
LeGrande, A. N. & Schmidt, G. A. Global gridded data set of the oxygen isotopic composition in seawater. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L12604 (2006).
Zhu, J., Poulsen, C. J. & Tierney, J. E. Simulation of Eocene extreme warmth and high climate sensitivity through cloud feedbacks. Sci. Adv. 5, eaax1874 (2019).
Hurrell, J. W. et al. The community Earth system model: a framework for collaborative research. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94, 1339–1360 (2013).
Meehl, G. A. et al. Effects of model resolution, physics, and coupling on Southern Hemisphere storm tracks in CESM1.3. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 12408–12416 (2019).
Zhu, J. et al. Reduced ENSO variability at the LGM revealed by an isotope-enabled Earth system model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 6984–6992 (2017).
Stevenson, S. et al. Volcanic eruption signatures in the isotope-enabled last millennium ensemble. Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol. 34, 1534–1552 (2019).
Lüthi, D. et al. High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present. Nature 453, 379–382 (2008).
Loulergue, L. et al. Orbital and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years. Nature 453, 383–386 (2008).
Schilt, A. et al. Atmospheric nitrous oxide during the last 140,000 years. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 300, 33–43 (2010).
Peltier, W. R., Argus, D. F. & Drummond, R. Space geodesy constrains ice age terminal deglaciation: The global ICE-6G_C (VM5a) model. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 120, 450–487 (2015).
DiNezio, P. N. et al. Glacial changes in tropical climate amplified by the Indian Ocean. Sci. Adv. 4, eaat9658 (2018).
Duplessy, J. C., Labeyrie, L. & Waelbroeck, C. Constraints on the ocean oxygen isotopic enrichment between the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene: Paleoceanographic implications. Quat. Sci. Rev. 21, 315–330 (2002).
Kageyama, M. et al. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6–part 4: scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments. Geosci. Model Dev. 10, 4035–4055 (2017).
Otto-Bliesner, B. L. et al. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6–part 2: two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations. Geosci. Model Dev. 10, 3979–4003 (2017).
Lawrence, D. M. et al. Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys. 3, M03001 (2011).
Bartlein, P. J. & Shafer, S. L. Paleo calendar-effect adjustments in time-slice and transient climatemodel simulations (PaleoCalAdjust v1.0): impact and strategies for data analysis. Geosci. Model Dev. 12, 3889–3913 (2019).
Whitaker, J. S. & Hamill, T. M. Ensemble data assimilation without perturbed observations. Mon. Weather Rev. 130, 1913–1924 (2002).
Hamill, T. M. Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts. Mon. Weather Rev. 129, 550–560 (2001).
Jones, T. R. et al. Water isotope diffusion in the WAIS Divide ice core during the Holocene and last glacial. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surface 122, 290–309 (2017).
Sokratov, S. A. & Golubev, V. N. Snow isotopic content change by sublimation. J. Glaciol. 55, 823–828 (2009).
Comas-Bru, L. et al. Evaluating model outputs using integrated global speleothem records of climate change since the last glacial. Clim. Past 15, 1557–1579 (2019).
Atsawawaranunt, K. et al. The SISAL database: a global resource to document oxygen and carbon isotope records from speleothems. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 10, 1687–1713 (2018).
Blunier, T. & Brook, E. J. Timing of millennial-scale climate change in Antarctica and Greenland during the Last Glacial Period. Science 291, 109–112 (2001).
Stenni, B. et al. Expression of the bipolar see-saw in Antarctic climate records during the last deglaciation. Nat. Geosci. 4, 46–49 (2011).
Watanabe, O. et al. Homogeneous climate variability across East Antarctica over the past three glacial cycles. Nature 422, 509–512 (2003).
Brook, E. J. et al. Timing of millennial-scale climate change at Siple Dome, West Antarctica, during the last glacial period. Quat. Sci. Rev. 24, 1333–1343 (2005).
Stenni, B. et al. The deuterium excess records of EPICA Dome C and Dronning Maud Land ice cores (East Antarctica). Quat. Sci. Rev. 29, 146–159 (2010).
Steig, E. J. et al. Synchronous climate changes in Antarctica and the North Atlantic. Science 282, 92–95 (1998).
Petit, J. R. et al. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399, 429–436 (1999).
Markle, B. R. et al. Global atmospheric teleconnections during Dansgaard–Oeschger events. Nat. Geosci. 10, 36–40 (2017).
Vinther, B. M. et al. Synchronizing ice cores from the Renland and Agassiz ice caps to the Greenland Ice Core Chronology. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 113, D08115 (2008).
Stuiver, M. & Grootes, P. M. GISP2 oxygen isotope ratios. Quat. Res. 53, 277–284 (2000).
Johnsen, S. J. et al. The δ18O record along the Greenland Ice Core Project deep ice core and the problem of possible Eemian climatic instability. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 102, 26397–26410 (1997).
Andersen, K. K. et al. High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period. Nature 431, 147–151 (2004).
Holmgren, K. et al. Persistent millennial-scale climatic variability over the past 25,000 years in Southern Africa. Quat. Sci. Rev. 22, 2311–2326 (2003).
Novello, V. F. et al. A high-resolution history of the South American Monsoon from Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene. Sci. Rep. 7, 44267 (2017).
Cheng, H. et al. The climate variability in northern Levant over the past 20,000 years. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 8641–8650 (2015).
Dutt, S. et al. Abrupt changes in Indian summer monsoon strength during 33,800 to 5500 years B.P. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 5526–5532 (2015).
Ayliffe, L. K. et al. Rapid interhemispheric climate links via the Australasian monsoon during the last deglaciation. Nat. Commun. 4, 2908 (2013).
Partin, J. W., Cobb, K. M., Adkins, J. F., Clark, B. & Fernandez, D. P. Millennial-scale trends in west Pacific warm pool hydrology since the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature 449, 452–455 (2007).
Cai, Y. et al. Variability of stalagmite-inferred Indian monsoon precipitation over the past 252,000 y. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 2954–2959 (2015).
Fleitmann, D. et al. Timing and climatic impact of Greenland interstadials recorded in stalagmites from northern Turkey. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L19707 (2009).
Cruz, F. W. et al. Insolation-driven changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 116,000 years in subtropical Brazil. Nature 434, 63–66 (2005).
Hellstrom, J., McCulloch, M. & Stone, J. A detailed 31,000-year record of climate and vegetation change, from the isotope geochemistry of two New Zealand speleothems. Quat. Res. 50, 167–178 (1998).
Grant, K. M. et al. Rapid coupling between ice volume and polar temperature over the past 150,000 years. Nature 491, 744–747 (2012).
Cheng, H. et al. Climate change patterns in Amazonia and biodiversity. Nat. Commun. 4, 1411 (2013).
Acknowledgements
We thank B. Malevich for early discussions and explorations on LGM-to-present data assimilation, and M. Fox and N. Rapp for help in compiling the proxy data. We thank P. DiNezio for providing initial and boundary condition files for the CESM simulations, and B. Markle for assistance in compiling and sharing the ice core water isotope data. This study was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) grant numbers AGS-1602301 and AGS-1602223, and Heising-Simons Foundation grant numbers 2016-012, 2016-014 and 2016-015. The CESM project is supported primarily by the NSF. This material is based on work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. Computing and data storage resources, including the Cheyenne supercomputer (https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RX99HX), were provided by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at NCAR.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
M.B.O. conducted the data assimilation, led the analysis and interpretation of the results, and designed the figures. M.B.O. and J.E.T. led the writing of this paper. J.E.T. led the proxy data compilation. J.K. wrote the DASH code, based on methods and input by R.T. and G.J.H. J.Z. and C.J.P. planned and conducted the iCESM simulations. All authors contributed to the design of the study and the writing of this manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Peer review information Nature thanks William Gray and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Peer reviewer reports are available.
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Extended data figures and tables
Extended Data Fig. 1 Time resolution and temporal coverage of the SST proxy data compilation.
a, Histogram of record resolution (denoting the median sample resolution for each record), computed for each proxy type. b, Histogram of record length for each proxy type.
Extended Data Fig. 2 Statistical validation of randomly withheld marine geochemical proxies.
a, From left: observed versus forward-modelled δ18Oc mean values for each site using the posterior data assimilation estimates. Shown at right are the associated median R2validation scores (each based on n = ~100 LGMR ensemble members), computed on a per-site basis (see Methods section “Internal and external validation testing”). b–d, As in a, but for \({\text{U}}_{37}^{\text{K'}}\) (b), Mg/Ca (c) and TEX86 (d), respectively.
Extended Data Fig. 3 Validation using independent δ18Op ice core and speleothem records.
a, 3 ka–preindustrial (PI; 0 ka) posterior ∆δ18Op field; overlying markers show the observed 3 ka–PI ∆δ18Op values from speleothems and ice cores. Only records spanning at least 18 of the past 24 kyr are shown. ∆R2 and ∆RMSEP values denote the change in observed versus posterior assimilated ∆δ18Op values relative to the prior (that is, iCESM) estimated values. b–h, As in a, but for values differenced at 6, 9, 12, 14, 16, 18 and 21 ka versus the PI, respectively. I, All observed ∆δ18Op versus model prior values; dashed line indicates the 1:1 relationship. j, All observed ∆δ18Op versus posterior values, which show a strong improvement in ∆R2 and ∆RMSEP over the prior. Note that each scatter point shown in panels i, j corresponds to an external validation site shown in panels a–h.
Extended Data Fig. 4 Time-comparison of posterior LGMR δ18Op with selected δ18Op ice core and speleothem records.
Uncertainty ranges denote the ±1σ level (dark) and 95% confidence range (light) from the LGMR ensemble. Also shown for comparison are the full range (shaded grey) and median iCESM time slice prior values (50-year means) for each site. See also Extended Data Table 2.
Extended Data Fig. 5 Influences on global surface temperature evolution during the past 24 kyr.
a–c, Spatial LGM-to-present correlations between surface air temperature (SAT) and combined greenhouse gas24 and global albedo radiative forcing13 (a); summer length at 65°S;27 (b); and the –1 × 231Pa/230Th AMOC proxy index from Bermuda Rise29,30,31 (c; shown such that SAT correlations are positive with AMOC strength).
Extended Data Fig. 6 Proxy-specific GMST reconstructions and comparison of Holocene GMST trends.
a, δ18Oc, \({\text{U}}_{37}^{\text{K'}}\), and Mg/Ca-derived GMST reconstructions, derived using both the proxy-only (PO) and data assimilation (DA) approaches. In a, the shaded regions show the ±1σ range across n = 50 ensemble members for the DA-based GMST estimates, and n = 10,000 realizations for the PO-based GMST estimates (note uncertainty ranges are not shown for the dotted-dashed curves). b, Sensitivity of the Holocene GMST evolution to the removal of proxies situated in contiguous 15° latitudinal bands, both for the PO and DA approaches. c, Sensitivity of the DA-based Holocene GMST evolution to proxy seasonality (computed by fixing foraminifera growth seasonality to either preindustrial (PI) or LGM monthly SSTs for Mg/Ca and δ18Oc, or by removing records with seasonal alkenone production for \({\text{U}}_{37}^{\text{K'}}\)), and to the ‘pooled’ foraminifera species SST calibrations of refs. 20,21 (see Supplementary Information). All ∆GMST time series denote deviations relative to the past 2 kyr.
Extended Data Fig. 7 Hemispheric variability during the past 24 kyr.
Ensemble distribution (n = 500) of LGMR-estimated Northern Hemisphere (NH; red) and Southern Hemisphere (SH; blue) mean hemispheric temperatures during the past 24 kyr. Shown at top is the surface temperature spatial difference for the Bølling–Allerød (BA) and Younger Dryas (YD) intervals. Range of hemispheric last deglacial and interglacial onset timings are shown as histograms at bottom. The LGMR is plotted alongside reconstructed decadal hemispheric temperatures from the last millennium reanalysis v2.117 and HadCRUT5 observational product11.
Supplementary information
Supplementary Information
This file contains Supplementary Information sections 1–-5.
Source data
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Osman, M.B., Tierney, J.E., Zhu, J. et al. Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature 599, 239–244 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03984-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03984-4
This article is cited by
-
Western Caucasus regional hydroclimate controlled by cold-season temperature variability since the Last Glacial Maximum
Communications Earth & Environment (2024)
-
Viral potential to modulate microbial methane metabolism varies by habitat
Nature Communications (2024)
-
Spatial patterns of Holocene temperature changes over mid-latitude Eurasia
Nature Communications (2024)
-
New dating indicates intermittent human occupation of the Nwya Devu Paleolithic site on the high-altitude central Tibetan Plateau during the past 45,000 years
Science China Earth Sciences (2024)
-
Common chironomids drive the biodiversity–temperature relationship during the Younger Dryas-Holocene transition in a southern Baltic coastal lake
Hydrobiologia (2024)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.
