Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Article
  • Published:

Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Annual 10Be ice-core records and post-volcanic cooling from tree rings under existing ice-core chronologies.
Figure 2: Re-dated ice-core, non-sea-salt sulfur records from Greenland and Antarctica in relation to growth anomalies in the N-Tree composite.
Figure 3: Global volcanic aerosol forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations for the past 2,500 years.
Figure 4: Post-volcanic cooling.
Figure 5: Volcanism and temperature variability during the migration period (500–705 ce).

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Robock, A. Volcanic eruptions and climate. Rev. Geophys. 38, 191–219 (2000)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Hanhijärvi, S., Tingley, M. P. & Korhola, A. Pairwise comparisons to reconstruct mean temperature in the Arctic Atlantic Region over the last 2,000 years. Clim. Dyn. 41, 2039–2060 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. PAGES 2k Consortium . Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nature Geosci. 6, 503 (2013)

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Mann, M. E. et al. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 13252–13257 (2008)

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  5. Usoskin, I. G. A history of solar activity over millennia. Living Rev. Sol. Phys 10, 1 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  6. Gao, C. C., Robock, A. & Ammann, C. Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: an improved ice core-based index for climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 113, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239 (2008)

  7. Crowley, T. J. & Unterman, M. B. Technical details concerning development of a 1200-yr proxy index of global volcanism. Earth System Sci. Data 5, 187–197 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  8. Mann, M. E., Fuentes, J. D. & Rutherford, S. Underestimation of volcanic cooling in tree-ring-based reconstructions of hemispheric temperatures. Nature Geosci. 5, 202–205 (2012)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Mann, M. E., Rutherford, S., Schurer, A., Tett, S. F. B. & Fuentes, J. D. Discrepancies between the modeled and proxy-reconstructed response to volcanic forcing over the past millennium: implications and possible mechanisms. J. Geophys. Res. 118, 7617–7627 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Schurer, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., Mann, M. E., Tett, S. F. B. & Phipps, S. J. Separating forced from chaotic climate variability over the past millennium. J. Clim. 26, 6954–6973 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  11. Anchukaitis, K. J. et al. Tree rings and volcanic cooling. Nature Geosci. 5, 836–837 (2012)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Büntgen, U. et al. Extraterrestrial confirmation of tree-ring dating. Nature Clim. Change 4, 404–405 (2014)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  13. Esper, J., Büntgen, U., Luterbacher, J. & Krusic, P. J. Testing the hypothesis of post-volcanic missing rings in temperature sensitive dendrochronological data. Dendrochronologia 31, 216–222 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. D’Arrigo, R., Wilson, R. & Anchukaitis, K. J. Volcanic cooling signal in tree ring temperature records for the past millennium. J. Geophys. Res. 118, 9000–9010 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Plummer, C. T. et al. An independently dated 2000-yr volcanic record from Law Dome, East Antarctica, including a new perspective on the dating of the 1450s CE eruption of Kuwae, Vanuatu. Clim. Past 8, 1929–1940 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Sigl, M. et al. A new bipolar ice core record of volcanism from WAIS Divide and NEEM and implications for climate forcing of the last 2000 years. J. Geophys. Res. 118, 1151–1169 (2013)

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  17. Sigl, M. et al. Insights from Antarctica on volcanic forcing during the Common Era. Nature Clim. Change 4, 693–697 (2014)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  18. Esper, J. et al. European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries. Bull. Volcanol. 75, 736 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  19. Douglass, D. H. & Knox, R. S. Climate forcing by the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L05710 (2005)

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  20. Baillie, M. G. L. Proposed re-dating of the European ice core chronology by seven years prior to the 7th century AD. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L15813 (2008)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  21. Baillie, M. G. L. & McAneney, J. Tree ring effects and ice core acidities clarify the volcanic record of the 1st millennium. Clim. Past 11, 105–114 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Miyake, F., Nagaya, K., Masuda, K. & Nakamura, T. A signature of cosmic-ray increase in AD 774–775 from tree rings in Japan. Nature 486, 240–242 (2012)

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  23. Miyake, F., Masuda, K. & Nakamura, T. Another rapid event in the carbon-14 content of tree rings. Nature Commun. 4, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/Ncomms2783 (2013)

  24. Usoskin, I. G. et al. The AD775 cosmic event revisited: the Sun is to blame. Astron. Astrophys. 552, http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201321080 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  25. Jull, A. J. T. et al. Excursions in the 14C record at A. D. 774–775 in tree rings from Russia and America. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 3004–3010 (2014)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Güttler, D. et al. Rapid increase in cosmogenic 14C in AD 775 measured in New Zealand kauri trees indicates short-lived increase in 14C production spanning both hemispheres. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 411, 290–297 (2015)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  27. Miyake, F. et al. Cosmic ray event of AD 774–775 shown in quasi-annual 10Be data from the Antarctic Dome Fuji ice core. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 84–89 (2015)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  28. Webber, W. R., Higbie, P. R. & McCracken, K. G. Production of the cosmogenic isotopes H-3, Be-7, Be-10, and Cl-36 in the Earth's atmosphere by solar and galactic cosmic rays. J. Geophys. Res. 112, A10106 (2007)

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  29. Masarik, J. & Beer, J. An updated simulation of particle fluxes and cosmogenic nuclide production in the Earth's atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res. 114, D11103 (2009)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  30. Vinther, B. M. et al. A synchronized dating of three Greenland ice cores throughout the Holocene. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D13102 (2006)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  31. Lavigne, F. et al. Source of the great A.D. 1257 mystery eruption unveiled, Samalas volcano, Rinjani Volcanic Complex, Indonesia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 16742–16747 (2013)

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  32. Winstrup, M. et al. An automated approach for annual layer counting in ice cores. Clim. Past 8, 1881–1895 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. McCormick, M. et al. Climate change during and after the Roman Empire: reconstructing the past from scientific and historical evidence. J. Interdisc. Hist. 43, 169–220 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Salzer, M. W. & Hughes, M. K. Bristlecone pine tree rings and volcanic eruptions over the last 5000 yr. Quat. Res. 67, 57–68 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Esper, J., Duthorn, E., Krusic, P. J., Timonen, M. & Buntgen, U. Northern European summer temperature variations over the Common Era from integrated tree-ring density records. J. Quat. Sci. 29, 487–494 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Crowley, T. J. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289, 270–277 (2000)

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  37. Driscoll, S., Bozzo, A., Gray, L. J., Robock, A. & Stenchikov, G. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D17105 (2012)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  38. Schneider, D. P., Ammann, C. M., Otto-Bliesner, B. L. & Kaufman, D. S. Climate response to large, high-latitude and low-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Community Climate System Model. J. Geophys. Res. 114, D15101 (2009)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  39. Zanchettin, D. et al. Inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the sea-ice response to volcanic forcing simulated by MPI-ESM (COSMOS-Mill). Earth Syst. Dyn. 5, 223–242 (2014)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  40. Stothers, R. B. Mystery cloud of Ad-536. Nature 307, 344–345 (1984)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  41. Larsen, L. B. et al. New ice core evidence for a volcanic cause of the AD 536 dust veil. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L04708 (2008)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  42. Büntgen, U. et al. 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility. Science 331, 578–582 (2011)

    Article  ADS  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  43. Esper, J. et al. Orbital forcing of tree-ring data. Nature Clim. Change 2, 862–866 (2012)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  44. D'Arrigo, R. et al. 1738 years of Mongolian temperature variability inferred from a tree-ring width chronology of Siberian pine. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 543–546 (2001)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  45. Zhang, Z. B. et al. Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and wars in China during AD 10–1900. Proc. R. Soc. B 277, 3745–3753 (2010)

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  46. Stothers, R. B. Volcanic dry fogs, climate cooling, and plague pandemics in Europe and the Middle East. Clim. Change 42, 713–723 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Stenseth, N. C. et al. Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 103, 13110–13115 (2006)

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  48. Dull, R. A. Evidence for forest clearance, agriculture, and human-induced erosion in Precolumbian El Salvador. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 97, 127–141 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Taylor, R. E. & Southon, J. Reviewing the Mid-First Millennium BC C-14 “warp” using C-14/bristlecone pine data. Nucl. Instrum. Meth. B 294, 440–443 (2013)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  50. Dahl-Jensen, D. et al. Eemian interglacial reconstructed from a Greenland folded ice core. Nature 493, 489–494 (2013)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  51. McConnell, J. R. Continuous ice-core chemical analyses using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Environ. Sci. Technol. 36, 7–11 (2002)

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  52. McConnell, J. R. & Edwards, R. Coal burning leaves toxic heavy metal legacy in the Arctic. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 12140–12144 (2008)

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  53. Pasteris, D. R. et al. Seasonally resolved ice core records from West Antarctica indicate a sea ice source of sea-salt aerosol and a biomass burning source of ammonium. J. Geophys. Res. 119, 9168–9182 (2014)

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  54. Abram, N. J., Mulvaney, R. & Arrowsmith, C. Environmental signals in a highly resolved ice core from James Ross Island, Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D20116 (2011)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  55. Kaufmann, P. R. et al. An improved continuous flow analysis system for high-resolution field measurements on ice cores. Environ. Sci. Technol. 42, 8044–8050 (2008)

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  56. Bigler, M. et al. Optimization of High-Resolution Continuous Flow Analysis for Transient Climate Signals in Ice Cores. Environ. Sci. Technol. 45, 4483–4489 (2011)

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  57. Ruth, U., Wagenbach, D., Steffensen, J. P. & Bigler, M. Continuous record of microparticle concentration and size distribution in the central Greenland NGRIP ice core during the last glacial period. J. Geophys. Res. 108 (2003)

  58. Woodruff, T. E., Welten, K. C., Caffee, M. W. & Nishiizumi, K. Interlaboratory comparison of Be-10 concentrations in two ice cores from Central West Antarctica. Nucl. Instrum. Meth. B 294, 77–80 (2013)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  59. Berggren, A. M. et al. Variability of Be-10 and delta O-18 in snow pits from Greenland and a surface traverse from Antarctica. Nucl. Instrum. Meth. B 294, 568–572 (2013)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  60. Bisiaux, M. M. et al. Changes in black carbon deposition to Antarctica from two high-resolution ice core records, 1850-2000 AD. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12, 4107–4115 (2012)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  61. Pasteris, D., McConnell, J. R., Edwards, R., Isaksson, E. & Albert, M. R. Acidity decline in Antarctic ice cores during the Little Ice Age linked to changes in atmospheric nitrate and sea salt concentrations. J. Geophys. Res. 119, 5640–5652 (2014)

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  62. Rasmussen, S. O. et al. A first chronology for the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core. Clim. Past 9, 2713–2730 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  63. Coulter, S. E. et al. Holocene tephras highlight complexity of volcanic signals in Greenland ice cores. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D21303 (2012)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  64. Barbante, C. et al. Greenland ice core evidence of the 79 AD Vesuvius eruption. Clim. Past 9, 1221–1232 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  65. Clausen, H. B. et al. A comparison of the volcanic records over the past 4000 years from the Greenland Ice Core Project and Dye 3 Greenland Ice Cores. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 26707–26723 (1997)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  66. Rolandi, G., Paone, A., Di Lascio, M. & Stefani, G. The 79 AD eruption of Somma: the relationship between the date of the eruption and the southeast tephra dispersion. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 169, 87–98 (2008)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  67. Sun, C. Q. et al. Ash from Changbaishan millennium eruption recorded in Greenland ice: implications for determining the eruption's timing and impact. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 694–701 (2014)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  68. Xu, J. D. et al. Climatic impact of the millennium eruption of Changbaishan volcano in China: new insights from high-precision radiocarbon wiggle-match dating. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 54–59 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  69. Deirmendjian, D. On volcanic and other particulate turbidity anomalies. Adv. Geophys. 16, 267–296 (1973)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  70. Vollmer, M. Effects of absorbing particles on coronas and glories. Appl. Opt. 44, 5658–5666 (2005)

    Article  ADS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  71. Sachs, A. J. & Hunger, H. Astronomical Diaries and Related Texts from Babylonia Vol.3 Diaries from 164 B.C. to 61 B.C. (Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, 1996)

    Google Scholar 

  72. Wittmann, A. D. & Xu, Z. T. A catalog of sunspot observations from 165 BC to AD 1684. Astron. Astrophys. (Suppl.) 70, 83–94 (1987)

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  73. Rasmussen, S. O. et al. A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D06102 (2006)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  74. Herron, M. M., Herron, S. L. & Langway, C. C. Climatic signal of ice melt features in southern Greenland. Nature 293, 389–391 (1981)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  75. Gao, C. H., Oman, L., Robock, A. & Stenchikov, G. L. Atmospheric volcanic loading derived from bipolar ice cores: accounting for the spatial distribution of volcanic deposition. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D09109 (2007)

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  76. Briffa, K. R. et al. Reassessing the evidence for tree-growth and inferred temperature change during the Common Era in Yamalia, northwest Siberia. Quat. Sci. Rev. 72, 83–107 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  77. Grudd, H. Tornetrask tree-ring width and density AD 500-2004: a test of climatic sensitivity and a new 1500-year reconstruction of north Fennoscandian summers. Clim. Dyn. 31, 843–857 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  78. Salzer, M. W., Bunn, A. G., Graham, N. E. & Hughes, M. K. Five millennia of paleotemperature from tree-rings in the Great Basin, USA. Clim. Dyn. 42, 1517–1526 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  79. McMahon, S. M., Parker, G. G. & Miller, D. R. Evidence for a recent increase in forest growth. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 3611–3615 (2010)

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  80. Salzer, M. W., Hughes, M. K., Bunn, A. G. & Kipfmueller, K. F. Recent unprecedented tree-ring growth in bristlecone pine at the highest elevations and possible causes. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 20348–20353 (2009)

    Article  ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  81. Briffa, K. R. et al. Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth to temperature at high northern latitudes. Nature 391, 678–682 (1998)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  82. Rohde, R. et al. A new estimate of the average land surface temperature spanning 1753 to 2011. Geoinform. Geostat. Overview 1, http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2327-4581.1000101 (2013)

  83. Mass, C. F. & Portman, D. A. Major volcanic eruptions and climate: a critical evaluation. J. Clim. 2, 566–593 (1989)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  84. Fritts, H. C., Lofgren, G. R. & Gordon, G. A. Variations in climate since 1602 as reconstructed from tree rings. Quat. Res. 12, 18–46 (1979)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  85. Jensen, B. J. L. et al. Transatlantic distribution of the Alaskan White River Ash. Geology 42, 875–878 (2014)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  86. Oskarsson, N., Sigvaldason, G. E. & Steinthorsson, S. A dynamic-model of rift-zone petrogenesis and the regional petrology of Iceland. J. Petrol. 23, 28–74 (1982)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  87. Kuehn, S. C., Froese, D. G., Shane, P. A. R. & Participants, I. I. The INTAV intercomparison of electron-beam microanalysis of glass by tephrochronology laboratories: results and recommendations. Quat. Int. 246, 19–47 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  88. Kaufman, D. S. et al. Late Quaternary tephrostratigraphy, Ahklun mountains, SW Alaska. J. Quat. Sci. 27, 344–359 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  89. Lakeman, T. R. et al. Holocene tephras in lake cores from northern British Columbia, Canada. Can. J. Earth Sci. 45, 935–947 (2008)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  90. Bursik, M., Sieh, K. & Meltzner, A. Deposits of the most recent eruption in the Southern Mono Craters, California: description, interpretation and implications for regional marker tephras. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 275, 114–131 (2014)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  91. Sampson, D. E. & Cameron, K. L. The geochemistry of the Inyo volcanic chain—multiple magma systems in the Long Valley region, eastern California. J. Geophys. Res. 92, 10403–10421 (1987)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  92. Veres, D. et al. The Antarctic ice core chronology (AICC2012): an optimized multi-parameter and multi-site dating approach for the last 120 thousand years. Clim. Past 9, 1733–1748 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  93. Siebert, L., Simkin, T. & Kimberly, P. Volcanoes of the World 3rd edn, (University of California Press, 2010)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the many people involved in logistics, drill development and drilling, and ice-core processing and analysis in the field and our laboratories. This work was supported by the US National Science Foundation (NSF). We appreciate the support of the WAIS Divide Science Coordination Office (M. Twickler and J. Souney) for collection and distribution of the WAIS Divide ice core; Ice Drilling and Design and Operations (K. Dahnert) for drilling; the National Ice Core Laboratory (B. Bencivengo) for curating the core; Raytheon Polar Services (M. Kippenhan) for logistics support in Antarctica; and the 109th New York Air National Guard for airlift in Antarctica. NEEM is directed and organized by the Center of Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute and the US NSF, Office of Polar Programs. It is supported by funding agencies and institutions in Belgium (FNRS-CFB and FWO), Canada (NRCan/GSC), China (CAS), Denmark (FIST), France (IPEV, CNRS/INSU, CEA and ANR), Germany (AWI), Iceland (RannIs), Japan (NIPR), Korea (KOPRI), The Netherlands (NWO/ALW), Sweden (VR), Switzerland (SNF), the UK (NERC), and the USA (the US NSF, Office of Polar Programs). We thank B. Nolan, O. Amir, K. D. Pang, M. McCormick, A. Matthews, and B. Rossignol for assistance in surveying and/or interpreting the historical evidence. We thank S. Kuehn for commenting on possible correlations for the tephra. We thank A. Aldahan and G. Possnert for their support in the NGRIP 10Be preparations and measurements at the Department of Earth Sciences and the Tandem laboratory at Uppsala University. We gratefully acknowledge R. Kreidberg for his editorial advice. The following individual grants supported this work: NSF/OPP grants 0839093, 0968391, and 1142166 to J.R.M. for development of the Antarctic ice core records and NSF/OPP grants 0909541, 1023672, and 1204176 to J.R.M. for development of the Arctic ice core records. M.W. was funded by the Villum Foundation. K.C.W. was funded by NSF/OPP grants 0636964 and 0839137. M.C. and T.E.W. were funded by NSF/OPP grants 0839042 and 0636815. F.L. was funded by the Yale Climate and Energy Institute, Initiative for the Science of the Human Past at Harvard, and the Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society of the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität (LMU Munich). C.K. was funded by a Marie Curie FP7 Integration Grant within the 7th European Union Framework Programme. M. Salzer was funded by NSF grant ATM 1203749. R.M. was funded by the Swedish Research Council (DNR2013-8421). The division of Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, acknowledges financial support by the SNF and the Oeschger Centre.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

M. Sigl designed the study with input from J.R.M., M.W., G.P., and F.L. The manuscript was written by M. Sigl, M.W., F.L., and J.R.M., with contributions from K.C.W., G.P., U.B., and B.M.V. in interpretation of the measurements. Ice-core chemistry measurements were performed by J.R.M., M. Sigl, O.J.M., N.C., D.R.P. (NEEM, B40, TUNU2013), and by S.S., H.F., R. Mulvaney (NEEM). K.C.W., T.E.W., and M.C. completed ice core 10Be measurements. F.M. and R. Muscheler were responsible for the NGRIP ice core 10Be measurements. M. Sigl, M.W., B.M.V., and J.R.M. analysed ice-core data and developed age models. F.L. and C.K. analysed historical documentary data. G.P. and J.R.P. performed ice-core tephra analysis and data interpretation. U.B. and M. Salzer contributed tree-ring data. D.D.-J., B.M.V., J.P.S., S.K., and O.J.M. were involved in drilling of the NEEM ice core. TUNU2013 was drilled by M. Sigl, N.C. and O.J.M., and the B40 ice core was drilled by S.K. and made available for chemistry measurements. D.D.-J. and J.P.S. were responsible for NEEM project management, sample distribution, logistics support, and management. All authors contributed towards improving the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to J. R. McConnell.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Figure 1 Location of study sites.

a, Map showing locations (blue circles) of the five ice cores (WDC, B40, NEEM, NGRIP and TUNU) used in this study. Sites of temperature-limited tree-ring chronologies (green)42,43,76,77,78 and sites with annual Δ14C measurements from tree-rings in the eighth century ce (red outline) are marked. b, Metadata for the ice cores, tree-ring width (RW), maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies and temperature reconstructions used3,12,16,17,25,35,42,43,76,77,78,82. m water equ. a−1, metres of water equivalent per year.

Extended Data Figure 2 Volcanic dust veils from historical documentary sources in relation to NEEM.

Time series of 32 independently selected chronological validation points from well dated historical observations of atmospheric phenomena with known association to explosive volcanism (for example, diminished sunlight, discoloured solar disk, solar corona or Bishop's Ring, red volcanic sunset) as reported in the Near East, Mediterranean region, and China, before our earliest chronological age marker at 536 ce. Black lines represent the magnitude (scale on y axes) of annual sulfate deposition measured in NEEM (NEEM and NEEM-2011-S1 ice cores) from explosive volcanic events on the new NS1-2011 timescale. Red crosses depict the 24 (75%) historical validation points for which NEEM volcanic events occur within a conservative ±3-year uncertainty margin. Blue crosses represent the eight points for which volcanic events are not observed. The association between validation points and volcanic events is statistically significantly non-random at>99.9% confidence (P < 0.001). ppb, parts per billion.

Extended Data Figure 3 Timescale comparison.

Age differences of the timescales NS1-2011 and GICC05 for the NEEM-2011-S1/NEEM ice cores (a) and WD2014 and WDC06A-7 for WDC (b). Differences before 86 ce (the age of the ice that is now at the bottom of the ice core NEEM-2011-S1) deriving from the annual-layer counting of the NEEM core are shown for major volcanic eruptions relative to the respective signals in NGRIP on the annual-layer counted GICC05 timescale. Marker events used for constraining the annual-layer dating (solid line) and for chronology evaluation (dashed lines) are indicated. Triangles mark volcanic signals. Also indicated is the difference between WD2014 and the Antarctic ice-core chronology (AICC2012)92, based on volcanic synchronization between the WDC and EDC96 ice cores.

Extended Data Figure 4 Post-volcanic suppression of tree growth.

Superposed epoch analysis for large volcanic eruptions using the 28 largest volcanic eruptions (a); the 23 largest tropical eruptions (b); the five largest Northern Hemisphere eruptions (c); and eruptions larger than Tambora 1815 with respect to sulfate aerosol loading (d). Shown are growth anomalies of a multi-centennial tree-ring composite record (N-Tree) 15 years after the year of volcanic sulfate deposition, relative to the average of five years before the events. Dashed lines indicate 95% confidence intervals (2 s.e.m.) of the tree-ring growth anomalies associated with the multiple eruptions.

Extended Data Figure 5 Major-element composition for ice core tephra QUB-1859 and reference material.

Shown are selected geochemistry data: SiO2 versus total alkali (K2O + Na2O) (a); FeO (total iron oxides) versus TiO2 (b); SiO2 versus Al2O3 (c); and CaO versus MgO (d) from 11 shards extracted from the NEEM-2011-S1 ice core at 327.17–327.25 m depth, representing the age range 536.0–536.4 ce on the new, NS1-2011 timescale. Data for Late Holocene tephra from Mono Craters (California) are from the compilation by ref. 90; data for Aniakchak (Alaska) are from reference material published by ref. 88; and data for the early Holocene upper Finlay tephra, believed to be from the Edziza complex in the Upper Cordilleran Volcanic province (British Columbia), are from ref. 89. (See Supplementary Information for the Upper Finlay tephra.)

Extended Data Table 1 Ice-core dating
Extended Data Table 2 Annual-layer results using the StratiCounter program
Extended Data Table 3 Historical documentary evidence for key volcanic eruption age markers 536-939 ce
Extended Data Table 4 Large volcanic eruptions during the past 2,500 years
Extended Data Table 5 Post-volcanic cooling

Related audio

41586_2015_BFnature14565_MOESM48_ESM.mp3

Researcher Joe McConnell explains how his team solved a 1500 year old mystery of a volcano missing from the geological record.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

This file contains a Supplementary File guide (PDF 80 kb)

Supplementary Data 1

This file contains ice core meta data and 10Be results – see guide for details. (XLSX 21 kb)

Supplementary Data 2

This file contains 3 Supplementary data tables – see guide for details. (PDF 1338 kb)

Supplementary Data 3

This file contains data from Greenland ice cores– see guide for details. (XLSX 8918 kb)

Supplementary Data 4

This file contains data from Antarctica ice cores– see guide for details. (XLSX 6765 kb)

Supplementary Data 5

This file contains volcanic reconstruction data– see guide for details. (XLSX 46 kb)

PowerPoint slides

Source data

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Sigl, M., Winstrup, M., McConnell, J. et al. Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years. Nature 523, 543–549 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing