Prolonged periods of reduced solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum of 1645–1715, have had a marked cooling effect. The recent observations of an absence of sunspots is fuelling speculation of an imminent grand solar minimum. If one occurred during the next few decades, researchers in Germany estimate that it would offset projected twenty-first century warming by no more than 0.3 °C overall.
Georg Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research used a global climate model to examine the effect of a Maunder-type minimum on global mean temperature by 2100. The model reproduced the cooling of past solar minima, but when simulating the future the authors found that the solar effect was overwhelmed by the much larger temperature increase due to greenhouse-gas emissions.
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Climate science: No solar fix. Nature 464, 652 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1038/464652a
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/464652a
