FIGURE 1. Cross-sectional relationship between TFR and HDI in 1975 and 2005.

From the following article:

Advances in development reverse fertility declines

Mikko Myrskylä, Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari

Nature 460, 741-743(6 August 2009)



The TFR reflects the number of children that would be born to a woman during her lifetime if she experienced the age-specific fertility rates observed in a calendar year. The HDI is the primary index used by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to monitor and evaluate broadly defined human development, combining with equal weight indicators of a country's health conditions, living standard and human capital11. An HDI of 0.9 roughly corresponds to 75 years of life expectancy, a GDP per capita of 25,000 US dollars in year 2000 purchasing power parity, and a 0.95 education index (a weighted sum of standardized literacy rate and primary, secondary and tertiary level gross enrolment ratios). The 1975 data include 107 countries, with 1975 HDI levels ranging from 0.25 to 0.887, and 1975 TFR levels ranging from 1.45 to 8.5; the 2005 data include 140 countries, with 2005 HDI levels ranging from 0.3 to 0.966, and 2005 TFR levels ranging from 1.08 to 7.7. The Spearman's rank correlation between HDI and TFR in 1975 is -0.85 (P < 0.01); the Spearman's rank correlation between HDI and TFR in 2005 is -0.84 (P < 0.01) for countries with HDI < 0.85, and 0.51 (P < 0.01) for countries with HDI greater than or equal to 0.9. For further details, see Supplementary Information. Countries with a 2005 HDI greater than or equal to 0.9 include (2005 HDI in parentheses): Australia (0.966), Norway (0.961), Iceland (0.956), Ireland (0.95), Luxembourg (0.949), Sweden (0.947), Canada (0.946), Finland (0.945), France (0.945), the Netherlands (0.945), the United States (0.944), Denmark (0.943), Japan (0.943), Switzerland (0.942), Belgium (0.94), New Zealand (0.938), Spain (0.938), the United Kingdom (0.936), Austria (0.934), Italy (0.934), Israel (0.922), Greece (0.918), Germany (0.916), Slovenia (0.913) and South Korea (0.911).

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