Editor's Summary
6 August 2009
Global population trends
The increasing wealth of nations is accompanied by a fall in fertility, so that in many developed (and developing) nations, fertility rates have dropped below the replacement value of about 2.1 births per woman. This 'birth dearth', together with the ageing of populations, presents many difficult social and political problems. But, based on new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the relationship between the total fertility rate and the human development index, Myrskylä et al. show that above a certain degree of economic development, fertility once again begins to rise, slowing the rate at which populations age. As a consequence, in contrast to the current popular and scientific debates, it seems likely that countries at the most advanced development stages will face a relatively stable population size, if not an increase in total population in cases where immigration is substantial.
News and Views: Demography: Babies make a comeback
The population of some wealthy countries is shrinking because of a declining birth rate. It comes as a surprise, and one with policy implications, that after a certain point of development that trend can reverse.
Shripad Tuljapurkar
doi:10.1038/460693a
Letter: Advances in development reverse fertility declines
Mikko Myrskylä, Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari
doi:10.1038/nature08230
First paragraph | Full Text | PDF (262K) | Supplementary information
