Nature 457, 1012-1014 (19 February 2009) | doi:10.1038/nature07634; Received 14 August 2008; Accepted 13 November 2008; Published online 19 November 2008; Corrected 19 February 2009

Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data

Jeremy Ginsberg1, Matthew H. Mohebbi1, Rajan S. Patel1, Lynnette Brammer2, Mark S. Smolinski1 & Larry Brilliant1

  1. Google Inc., 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, California 94043, USA
  2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, NE, Atlanta, Georgia 30333, USA

Correspondence to: Matthew H. Mohebbi1 Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to J.G. or M.H.M. (Email: flutrends-support@google.com).

Seasonal influenza epidemics are a major public health concern, causing tens of millions of respiratory illnesses and 250,000 to 500,000 deaths worldwide each year1. In addition to seasonal influenza, a new strain of influenza virus against which no previous immunity exists and that demonstrates human-to-human transmission could result in a pandemic with millions of fatalities2. Early detection of disease activity, when followed by a rapid response, can reduce the impact of both seasonal and pandemic influenza3, 4. One way to improve early detection is to monitor health-seeking behaviour in the form of queries to online search engines, which are submitted by millions of users around the world each day. Here we present a method of analysing large numbers of Google search queries to track influenza-like illness in a population. Because the relative frequency of certain queries is highly correlated with the percentage of physician visits in which a patient presents with influenza-like symptoms, we can accurately estimate the current level of weekly influenza activity in each region of the United States, with a reporting lag of about one day. This approach may make it possible to use search queries to detect influenza epidemics in areas with a large population of web search users.


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