Editor's Summary

3 July 2008

Increased risk of extinction

The risk that a natural population can become extinct is a fundamental biological process, and is central to our understanding of biodiversity and evolution. But Brett Melbourne and Alan Hastings contend that existing mathematical models of extinction risk ascribe variability in population numbers to the wrong processes. In work that combines a new mathematical theory with experimental data, they show that different kinds of random-ness in the life of an animal combine in such a way that the risk of extinction is many times higher than previously thought possible, and that estimated risks of extinction for endangered species need to be raised.

Letter: Extinction risk depends strongly on factors contributing to stochasticity

Brett A. Melbourne & Alan Hastings

doi:10.1038/nature06922

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