Editor's Summary
8 May 2008
Dry outlook for the Amazon
The severe drought of 2005 in the western Amazonian rainforest, apparently associated with unusually high sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic ocean, was a dramatic event that prompted speculation that tropical forest dieback was a potential 'tipping point' of the climate system. A new analysis suggests that this event can be better understood with reference to the gradient in sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Atlantic, of which the northern temperature anomalies are just one factor. When the effects of atmospheric aerosols are incorporated into the model, the observed variations in this temperature gradient over the past century can be reproduced. And projecting these trends to the future, the model suggests that sea-surface conditions conducive to droughts like that seen in 2005 will become much more common.
Letter: Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution
Peter M. Cox, Phil P. Harris, Chris Huntingford, Richard A. Betts, Matthew Collins, Chris D. Jones, Tim E. Jupp, José A. Marengo & Carlos A. Nobre
doi:10.1038/nature06960
First paragraph | Full Text | PDF (370K) | Supplementary information
Author: Abstractions
doi:10.1038/7192xiib