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Nature 449, xi (6 September 2007) | doi:10.1038/7158xia; Published online 5 September 2007

Making the paper: Phil Cummins

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Combining historical accounts and geology to estimate tsunami risk.

Just a few months before the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, Phil Cummins forecast that such an event could result from a giant earthquake in central Sumatra. The Geoscience Australia seismologist's prediction, made in the organization's September newsletter, was accurate in all but one aspect: the magnitude-9.

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