Supplementary information

From the following article:

Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic

Neil M. Ferguson, Derek A. T. Cummings, Christophe Fraser, James C. Cajka, Philip C. Cooley and Donald S. Burke

Nature 442, 448-452(27 July 2006)

doi:10.1038/nature04795

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Supplementary Notes

This file contains information on datasets and modelling methods used, model parameterization and sensitivity analyses.

Supplementary Video 1

This file shows the first 140 days of a pandemic in Great Britain, assuming a moderate level of transmissibility (R0=1.7). The movie starts on day 40 of the global pandemic, just before the first cases entering the country. The video runs at the rate of three days model time per second of video time. Grey scale represents population density of uninfected, susceptible individuals. Red represents density of infected individuals, and green represents areas where the epidemic is over. 58.1 million individuals were modelled in the GB simulation.

Supplementary Video 2

This file shows the first 170 days of a pandemic in the United States of America, assuming a moderate level of transmissibility (R0=1.7). The movie starts on day 40 of the global pandemic, just prior to the first cases entering the country. The video runs at the rate of three days model time per second of video time. Grey scale represents population density of uninfected, susceptible individuals. Red represents density of infected individuals, and green represents areas where the epidemic is over. 300 million individuals were modelled in the US simulation.

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