1. Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), PO Box 40, 6666ZG Heteren, The Netherlands
2. Animal Ecology Group, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Studies, University of Groningen, PO Box 14, 9750AA Haren, The Netherlands
3. †Present addresses: Behavioural Biology Group, University of Groningen, PO Box 14, 9750AA Haren, The Netherlands, and The Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK

Correspondence to: Christiaan Both^1,2 Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to C.B. (Email: C.Both@rug.nl).

Abstract

Phenological responses to climate change differ across trophic levels^{1, 2, 3}, which may lead to birds failing to breed at the time of maximal food abundance. Here we investigate the population consequences of such mistiming in the migratory pied flycatcher, Ficedula hypoleuca⁴. In a comparison of nine Dutch populations, we find that populations have declined by about 90% over the past two decades in areas where the food for provisioning nestlings peaks early in the season and the birds are currently mistimed. In areas with a late food peak, early-breeding birds still breed at the right time, and there is, at most, a weak population decline. If food phenology advances further, we also predict population declines in areas with a late food peak, as in these areas adjustment to an advanced food peak is insufficient⁴. Mistiming as a result of climate change is probably a widespread phenomenon¹, and here we provide evidence that it can lead to population declines.

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