Editor's Summary

23 March 2006

Choose it or lose it

Deforestation is continuing in the Amazon basin as the cattle and soy industries expand. The main conservation policy there involves 'protected areas': areas designated by national governments that are left undisturbed to allow natural vegetation to develop. But this alone may not protect the rainforest ecosystem from collapse. An new estimate of forest losses made using the SimAmazonia 1 computer model suggests that by 2050, agricultural expansion will eliminate two-thirds of the forest cover of five major watersheds and ten ecoregions. One in four mammalian species examined will lose 40% of their forest habitat. Although an improved network of protected areas could avoid up to a third of projected forest loss, forest conservation on private properties will be essential if the Amazon landscapes and watersheds are to be maintained.

Letter: Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin

Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho, Daniel Curtis Nepstad, Lisa M. Curran, Gustavo Coutinho Cerqueira, Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia, Claudia Azevedo Ramos, Eliane Voll, Alice McDonald, Paul Lefebvre and Peter Schlesinger

doi:10.1038/nature04389

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