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From the following article:

Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia

Neil M. Ferguson, Derek A.T. Cummings, Simon Cauchemez, Christophe Fraser, Steven Riley, Aronrag Meeyai, Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Donald S. Burke

Nature 437, 209-214(8 September 2005)

doi:10.1038/nature04017