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Nature 437, E3-E4 (8 September 2005) | doi:10.1038/nature04179; Published online 7 September 2005

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Malaria risk: Estimation of the malaria burden

David R. Bell1, Pernille Jorgensen1, Eva Maria Christophel1 & Kevin L. Palmer1

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Arising from: R. W. Snow, C. A. Guerra, A. M. Noor, H. Y. Myint & S. I. Hay Nature 434, 214–217 (2005); see also communication from Nahlen; Snow et al. reply.

Accurate estimates of the global burden of malaria are important for planning, monitoring and advocacy. Snow et al.1 attempt to address the shortcomings of previous estimates of the incidence of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum by combining current and historical data. However, we believe that the design of their model and its inputs have led to a significant overestimate of the malaria burden outside Africa — as in the example of the World Health Organization (WHO) western Pacific region (WPR), for which their model predicts 60 times the 2002 incidence reported by national malaria-control programmes2.

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