FIGURE 4. Social distance measures.

a, b, Same as Fig. 3a, b, but showing the effect of drug-sparing prophylaxis (50,000 courses per case, as Fig. 3e) together with: no social distance measures (red; as Fig. 3); 21-day closure of 90% of schools and 50% of workplaces within 5 km of a detected case (blue); 80% 'area quarantine' (that is, 80% reduction of movement in and out of a zone defined by merging 5-km rings around all detected cases) for 21 days (magenta); or a combination of school/workplace closure and area quarantine (green). c, Same as a but showing the effect of limiting availability of antiviral drugs to 1, 3 or 5 million courses on the effectiveness of the combined area quarantine and 5-km radial prophylaxis policy. d, Same as c but for drug-sparing geographic prophylaxis (50,000 courses per case) plus area quarantine. e, Case incidence over time without pandemic control measures and with the 3 million course policy of d, showing the approximate one-month delay achieved even when containment is unsuccessful (R₀ = 1.9). f, Same as a but showing the reduction in policy effectiveness seen if the combined school/workplace closure and drug-sparing prophylaxis policy is restricted to Thailand alone. Error bars show exact 95% confidence limits.