Tokyo

The annual meeting of the International Whaling Commission (IWC) this month is set to take a different tone from previous gatherings. For the first time, the pro-whaling lobby seems to have amassed sufficient numbers to exercise a majority.

The IWC has long struggled to balance the competing demands of its remit to conserve whale stocks and develop a sustainable whaling industry. Its membership has been bitterly divided since 1986, when the commission introduced a moratorium on commercial whaling.

The pro-whaling block, led by Japan, has rarely got its way. The commission acts more like a conservation organization than one geared towards regulating commercial whaling, complains Joji Morishita of Japan's fishery agency. He says that, with a majority, the pro-whaling nations would steer the IWC back towards its original purpose.

The pro-whaling lobby does not yet have enough members to quash the moratorium on commercial whaling, which would require a three-quarters majority. But it may be able to push the IWC to axe several subcommittees, such as those devoted to conservation or the impact of whaling on whale-watching, says Phillip Clapham, a marine biologist at the National Marine Mammal Laboratory in Seattle.

It could also help Japan to score some much needed political credibility points. Since the moratorium, Japan has killed more than 8,000 whales for scientific research. This is permitted under IWC rules, although Japan's programme has never been approved by the commission. At the IWC's annual meeting in Ulsan, South Korea, on 20–24 June, Japan is expected to table a proposal that would double its annual take for research purposes.

But anti-whaling nations believe the programmes have little scientific benefit. Although Japan doesn't need IWC backing to carry out scientific whaling, formal approval for either its previous programme or its latest proposals would bolster the country's image (see pages 856 and 883).

Morishita says that the extra catch will provide data that anti-whalers say are needed before commercial whaling can resume. “As it gets more political, the scientists come up with more difficult questions, and these require more data,” he says.