Abstract
Reorganizations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation were associated with large and abrupt climatic changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial period1,2,3,4. Projections with climate models suggest that similar reorganizations may also occur in response to anthropogenic global warming5,6,7. Here I use ensemble simulations with a coupled climate–ecosytem model of intermediate complexity to investigate the possible consequences of such disturbances to the marine ecosystem. In the simulations, a disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation leads to a collapse of the North Atlantic plankton stocks to less than half of their initial biomass, owing to rapid shoaling of winter mixed layers and their associated separation from the deep ocean nutrient reservoir. Globally integrated export production declines by more than 20 per cent owing to reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water and gradual depletion of upper ocean nutrient concentrations. These model results are consistent with the available high-resolution palaeorecord, and suggest that global ocean productivity is sensitive to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
$199.00 per year
only $3.90 per issue
Rent or buy this article
Prices vary by article type
from$1.95
to$39.95
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Clark, P. U., Pisias, N. G., Stocker, T. F. & Weaver, A. J. The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change. Nature 415, 863–869 (2002)
Sarnthein, M. et al. in The Northern North Atlantic: A Changing Environment (eds Schäfer, P., Ritzau, W., Schlüter, M. & Thiede, J.) 45–66 (Springer, Berlin, 2001)
Dokken, T. M. & Jansen, E. Rapid changes in the mechanism of ocean convection during the last glacial period. Nature 401, 458–461 (1999)
Schmittner, A., Saenko, O. A. & Weaver, A. J. Coupling of the hemispheres in observations and simulations of glacial climate change. Quat. Sci. Rev. 22, 659–671 (2003)
Manabe, S. & Stouffer, R. J. Century-scale effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on the ocean-atmosphere system. Nature 364, 215–218 (1993)
Stocker, T. F. & Schmittner, A. Influence of CO2 emission rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation. Nature 388, 862–865 (1997)
Cubasch, U. et al. in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (ed. Houghton, J. T.) 525–582 (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001)
Willamowski, C. & Zahn, R. Upper ocean circulation in the glacial North Atlantic from benthic foraminiferal isotope and trace element fingerprinting. Paleoceanography 15, 515–527 (2000)
Sarmiento, J. L., Gruber, N., Brzezinski, M. A. & Dunne, J. P. High-latitude controls of thermocline nutrients and low latitude biological productivity. Nature 427, 56–60 (2004)
Weinelt, M., Rosell-Mele, A., Pflaumann, U., Sarnthein, M. & Kiefer, T. Zur Rolle der Produktivität im Nordostatlantik bei abrupten Klimaänderungen in den letzten 80000 Jahren. Z. Dt. Geol. Ges. 154, 47–66 (2003)
Rasmussen, T. L., Thomson, E., Troelstra, S. R., Kuijpers, A. & Prins, M. A. Millennial-scale glacial variability versus Holocene stability: changes in planktic and benthic foraminiferal faunas and ocean circulation in the North Atlantic during the last 60 000 years. Mar. Micropaleont. 47, 143–176 (2002)
Thomas, E., Booth, L., Maslin, M. & Shackleton, N. J. Northeastern Atlantic benthic foraminifera during the last 45,000 years: Changes in productivity seen from the bottom up. Paleoceanography 10, 545–562 (1995)
Vink, A. et al. Shifts in the position of the North Equatorial Current and rapid productivity changes in the western Tropical Atlantic during the last glacial. Paleoceanography 16, 479–490 (2001)
Schulte, S. & Müller, P. J. Variations of sea surface temperature and primary productivity during Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events in the northeastern Arabian Sea. Geo-Mar. Lett. 21, 168–175 (2001)
Hendy, I. L. & Kennett, J. P. Tropical forcing of North Pacific intermediate water distribution during Late Quaternary rapid climate change? Quat. Sci. Rev. 22, 673–689 (2003)
Ortiz, J. D. et al. Enhanced productivity off western North America during the warm climate intervals of the past 52 k.y. Geology 32, 521–524 (2004)
Kiefer, T. Productivity and Temperatures in the Subtropical North Atlantic: Cyclic and Abrupt Changes During the Late Quaternary (Rep. No. 90, Geol.-Paläont. Inst. Univ. Kiel, 1998)
Lebreiro, S. M., Moreno, J. C., Abrantes, F. F. & Pflaumann, U. Productivity and paleoceanographic implications on the Tore Seamount (Iberian Margin) during the last 225 kyr: Foraminiferal evidence. Paleoceanography 12, 718–727 (1997)
Bopp, L. et al. Potential impact of climate change on marine export production. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 15, 81–100 (2001)
Weaver, A. J. et al. The UVic Earth system climate model: Model description, climatology and applications to past, present and future climates. Atmosphere-Ocean 4, 361–428 (2001)
Simmons, H. L., Jayne, S. R., St Laurent, L. C. & Weaver, A. J. Tidally driven mixing in a numerical model of the ocean general circulation. Ocean Model. 6, 245–263 (2004)
Schmittner, A., Oschlies, A., Giraud, X., Eby, M. & Simmons, H. L. A global model of the marine ecosystem for long term simulations: sensitivity to ocean mixing, buoyancy forcing, particle sinking and dissolved organic matter cycling. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles (in the press)
Six, K. D. & Maier-Reimer, E. Effects of plankton dynamics on seasonal carbon fluxes in an ocean general circulation model. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 559–583 (1996)
Schartau, M. & Oschlies, A. Simultaneous data-based optimization of a 1D-ecosystem model at three locations in the North Atlantic: Part I–Method and parameter estimates. J. Mar. Res. 61, 765–793 (2003)
Gregg, W. W., Conkright, M. E., Ginoux, P., O'Reilly, J. E. & Casey, N. W. Ocean primary production and climate: Global decadal changes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1809, doi:10.1029/2003GL016889 (2003)
Antoine, D., André, J.-M. & Morel, A. Oceanic primary production 2. Estimation at global scale from satellite (coastal zone color scanner) chlorophyll. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 57–69 (1996)
Aumont, O., Maier-Reimer, E., Blain, S. & Monfray, P. An ecosystem model of the global ocean including Fe, Si, P colimitations. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 17, 1060, doi:10.1029/2001GB001745 (2003)
Conkright, M. E. et al. World Ocean Atlas 2001, Objective Analysis, Data Statistics, and Figures (CD-ROM Documentation, National Oceanographic Data Center, Silver Spring, Maryland, 2002)
Acknowledgements
Productivity data sets were provided by D. Antoine and W. Gregg. Discussions with A. Oschlies, M. Sarnthein, M. Weinelt and H. Kinkel were appreciated. This research was supported as part of the research unit (Forschergruppe 451) on ocean gateways by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no competing financial interests.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Schmittner, A. Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation. Nature 434, 628–633 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03476
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03476
This article is cited by
-
Reduced CO2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation
Nature Climate Change (2023)
-
Energetic overturning flows, dynamic interocean exchanges, and ocean warming observed in the South Atlantic
Communications Earth & Environment (2023)
-
Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians
Communications Biology (2021)
-
Distribution patterns and seasonal variations in phytoplankton communities of the hypersaline Pulicat lagoon, India
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2021)
-
Cell Size Decrease and Altered Size Structure of Phytoplankton Constrain Ecosystem Functioning in the Middle Danube River Over Multiple Decades
Ecosystems (2020)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.