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Brief Communications

Nature 434, 291 (17 March 2005) | doi:10.1038/434291a; Published online 16 March 2005

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Indonesian earthquake:  Earthquake risk from co-seismic stress

John McCloskey1, Suleyman S. Nalbant1 & Sandy Steacy1

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Last year's Indonesian earthquake has increased seismic hazard in the region.

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Following the massive loss of life caused by the Sumatra–Andaman earthquake in Indonesia and its tsunami, the possibility of a triggered earthquake on the contiguous Sunda trench subduction zone is a real concern. We have calculated the distributions of co-seismic stress on this zone, as well as on the neighbouring, vertical strike–slip Sumatra fault, and find an increase in stress on both structures that significantly boosts the already considerable earthquake hazard posed by them. In particular, the increased potential for a large subduction-zone event in this region, with the concomitant risk of another tsunami, makes the need for a tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean all the more urgent.

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