FIGURE 3. Estimated likelihood functions for anthropogenic and natural contributions to European summer temperature changes.
From the following article:
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
Peter A. Stott, D. A. Stone and M. R. Allen
Nature 432, 610-614(2 December 2004)
doi:10.1038/nature03089
The curves show estimated distributions of anthropogenic (red) and natural (green) scaling factors on model-simulated responses (a). 1990s summer temperatures (relative to pre-industrial climate) including all external drivers of climate change (red) and with anthropogenic drivers removed (green) (b). A scaling factor of zero (horizontal solid line in a) implies no contribution to observed 1990s temperatures from this driver, while unity (horizontal dashed line in a) implies no systematic under- or over-estimate by the model of the observed response to this driver. The width of these distributions reflects the uncertainties for these probabilities.
