Abstract
The principal extratropical atmospheric circulation mode in the Southern Hemisphere, the Antarctic oscillation (or Southern Hemisphere annular mode), represents fluctuations in the strength of the circumpolar vortex and has shown a trend towards a positive index in austral summer in recent decades, which has been linked to stratospheric ozone depletion1,2 and to increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations3,4. Here we reconstruct the austral summer (December–January) Antarctic oscillation index from sea-level pressure measurements over the twentieth century5 and find that large positive values, and positive trends of a similar magnitude to those of past decades, also occurred around 1960, and that strong negative trends occurred afterwards. This positive Antarctic oscillation index and large positive trend during a period before ozone-depleting chemicals were released into the atmosphere and before marked anthropogenic warming, together with the later negative trend, indicate that natural forcing factors or internal mechanisms in the climate system must also strongly influence the state of the Antarctic oscillation.
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Supplementary information
Supplementary Methods
This file describes the data and methods used to produce the two reconstructions of the Antarctic Oscillation. (DOC 28 kb)
Supplementary Table 1
This file contains a listing of the stations used to produce the two reconstructions and their latitudes and longitudes. (DOC 23 kb)
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Jones, J., Widmann, M. Early peak in Antarctic oscillation index. Nature 432, 290–291 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1038/432290b
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/432290b
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