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Nature 430, (1 July 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature02716

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Biodiversity conservation:  Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk

Wilfried Thuiller1,2, Miguel B. Araújo3, Richard G. Pearson3, Robert J. Whittaker3, Lluís Brotons1 & Sandra Lavorel4

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Arising from: C. D. Thomas et al. Nature 427, 145–148 (2004); see also communication from Buckley & Roughgarden and communication from Harte et al.;Thomas et al. reply

Thomas et al.1 model species-distribution responses to a range of climate-warming scenarios and use a novel application of the species–area relationship to estimate that 15–37% of modelled species in various regions of the world will be committed to extinction by 2050. Although we acknowledge the efforts that they make to measure the uncertainties associated with different climate scenarios, species' dispersal abilities and z values (predictions ranged from 5.6% to 78.6% extinctions), we find that two additional sources of uncertainty may substantially increase the variability in predictions.

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