Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure

Abstract

Greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulphate aerosols—the main human influences on climate—have been shown to have had a detectable effect on surface air temperature1,2,3, the temperature of the free troposphere and stratosphere2,4 and ocean temperature5,6. Nevertheless, the question remains as to whether human influence is detectable in any variable other than temperature. Here we detect an influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in observations of winter sea-level pressure (December to February), using combined simulations from four climate models. We find increases in sea-level pressure over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, southern Europe and North Africa, and decreases in the polar regions and the North Pacific Ocean, in response to human influence. Our analysis also indicates that the climate models substantially underestimate the magnitude of the sea-level pressure response. This discrepancy suggests that the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index7 (corresponding to strengthened westerlies in the North Atlantic region), as simulated in a number of global warming scenarios8,9,10, may be too small, leading to an underestimation of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Observed and simulated sea-level pressure trends.
Figure 2: Regression coefficients, β, of observed sea-level pressure changes against changes simulated in response to greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol increases.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Tett, S. F. B., Stott, P. A., Allen, M. R., Ingram, W. J. & Mitchell, J. F. B. Causes of twentieth-century temperature change near the Earth's surface. Nature 399, 569–572 (1999)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Mitchell, J. F. B. et al. Climate Change 2001. The Scientific Basis Ch. 12 (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2001)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Allen, M. R. et al. Quantifying anthropogenic influence on recent near-surface temperature change. Surv. Geophys. (in the press)

  4. Tett, S. F. B., Mitchell, J. F. B., Parker, D. E. & Allen, M. R. Human influence on the atmospheric vertical temperature structure: Detection and observations. Science 274, 1170–1173 (1996)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W. & Schnur, R. Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans. Science 292, 270–274 (2001)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. Reichert, B. K. et al. Global ocean warming tied to anthropogenic forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett. DOI:10.1029/2001GL013954 (2002)

  7. Thompson, D. W. J., Wallace, J. M. & Hegerl, G. C. Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends. J. Clim. 13, 1018–1036 (2000)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  8. Shindell, D. T., Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A. & Pandolfo, L. Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing. Nature 399, 452–455 (1999)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Fyfe, J. C., Boer, G. J. & Flato, G. M. The Arctic and Antarctic oscillations and their projected changes under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 1601–1604 (1999)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  10. Gillett, N. P. et al. How linear is the Arctic Oscillation response to greenhouse gases? J. Geophys. Res. DOI:10.1029/2001JD000589 (2002)

  11. Basnett, T. A. & Parker, D. E. Development of the global mean sea-level pressure data set GMSLP2. Clim. Res. Tech. Note 79 (Hadley Centre, Met Office, Bracknell, UK, 1997)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Kalnay, E. et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 437–471 (1996)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  13. Trenberth, K. E. & Paolino, D. A. The Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure data set: Trends, errors and discontinuities. Mon. Weath. Rev. 108, 855–872 (1980)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  14. Osborn, T. J. et al. Evaluation of the North Atlantic Oscillation as simulated by a coupled climate model. Clim. Dyn. 15, 685–702 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Gillett, N. P., Graf, H. F. & Osborn, T. J. in The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact Ch. 9 (American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 2003)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Allen, M. R. & Tett, S. F. B. Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting. Clim. Dyn. 15, 419–434 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Lambert, S. J. & Boer, G. J. CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models. Clim. Dyn. 17, 83–106 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Krishnamurti, T. N. et al. Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model superensemble. Science 285, 1548–1550 (1999)

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Gillett, N. P. et al. Detecting anthropogenic influence with a multi-model ensemble. Geophys. Res. Lett. DOI:10.1029/2002GL015836 (2002)

  20. Thompson, D. W. J. & Wallace, J. M. Regional climate impacts of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode. Science 293, 85–89 (2001)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  21. Gillett, N. P. et al. Implications of changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation for the detection of anthropogenic climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 993–996 (2000)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank R. Allan and J. Arnott for supplying the HadSLP data set, and M. Allen for allowing us to use his optimal detection code. We thank NSERC and CFCAS for CLIVAR funding. A.J.W. is grateful for support from the Killam Foundation and the Canada Research Chair Program, and P.A.S. is grateful for support from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nathan P. Gillett.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing financial interests.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gillett, N., Zwiers, F., Weaver, A. et al. Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure. Nature 422, 292–294 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01487

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01487

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing