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Nature 421, 136-142 (9 January 2003) | doi:10.1038/nature01343; Received 17 June 2002; Accepted 4 December 2002; Published online 22 December 2002

Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease

M. J. Keeling1, M. E. J. Woolhouse2, R. M. May3, G. Davies4 & B. T. Grenfell5

  1. Department of Biological Science & Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
  2. Centre for Infectious Diseases, College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush, Roslin, Midlothian, EH25 9RG, UK
  3. Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK
  4. Zinnia, Kettlewell Hill, Woking, Surrey, GU21 4JJ, UK
  5. Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK

Correspondence to: M. J. Keeling1 Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to M.J.K. (e-mail: Email: m.j.keeling@warwick.ac.uk).

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Vaccination has proved a powerful defence against a range of infectious diseases of humans and animals. However, its potential to control major epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in livestock is contentious. Using an individual farm-based model, we consider either national prophylactic vaccination campaigns in advance of an outbreak, or combinations of reactive vaccination and culling strategies during an epidemic. Consistent with standard epidemiological theory, mass prophylactic vaccination could reduce greatly the potential for a major epidemic, while the targeting of high-risk farms increases efficiency. Given sufficient resources and preparation, a combination of reactive vaccination and culling might control ongoing epidemics. We also explore a reactive strategy, 'predictive' vaccination, which targets key spatial transmission loci and can reduce markedly the long tail that characterizes many FMD epidemics. These analyses have broader implications for the control of human and livestock infectious diseases in heterogeneous spatial landscapes.