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Nature 419, 32 (5 September 2002) | doi:10.1038/419032a

Open Innovation Challenges

Seismology: Stressed to quaking point

Chris Marone

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The Earth's crust can deform catastrophically in earthquakes, but it's difficult to predict exactly what causes such failure. Analysing thousands of small shocks might help us better understand how earthquakes occur.

In the study of earthquake mechanics, one of the biggest problems is pinning down the initial conditions. The slip history and the initial stress field around a fault are rarely known with certainty, making it tricky at best to work out what conditions trigger an earthquake.