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Letters to Nature

Nature 416, 626-629 (11 April 2002) | doi:10.1038/416626a; Received 15 June 2001; Accepted 3 January 2002

Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios

A. Townsend Peterson1, Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta2, Jeremy Bartley3, Victor Sánchez-Cordero4, Jorge Soberón5, Robert H. Buddemeier3 & David R. B. Stockwell6

  1. Natural History Museum, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045, USA
  2. Department of Geography and Kansas Applied Remote Sensing Program, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045, USA
  3. Kansas Geological Survey and Department of Geography, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045, USA
  4. Departamento de Zoología, Instituto de Biología, Apartado Postal 70-153, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, D.F. 04510, México
  5. Departamento de Ecología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, D.F. 04510, México
  6. San Diego Supercomputer Center, University of California, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, California 92093, USA

Correspondence to: A. Townsend Peterson1 Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to A.T.P. (e-mail: Email: town@ukans.edu).

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Global climates are changing rapidly, with unexpected consequences1. Because elements of biodiversity respond intimately to climate as an important driving force of distributional limitation2, distributional shifts and biodiversity losses are expected3, 4. Nevertheless, in spite of modelling efforts focused on single species2 or entire ecosystems5, a few preliminary surveys of fauna-wide effects6, 7, and evidence of climate change-mediated shifts in several species8, 9, the likely effects of climate change on species' distributions remain little known, and fauna-wide or community-level effects are almost completely unexplored6. Here, using a genetic algorithm and museum specimen occurrence data, we develop ecological niche models for 1,870 species occurring in Mexico and project them onto two climate surfaces modelled for 2055. Although extinctions and drastic range reductions are predicted to be relatively few, species turnover in some local communities is predicted to be high (>40% of species), suggesting that severe ecological perturbations may result.