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Nature 412, 490-491 (2 August 2001) | doi:10.1038/35087685
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Demography: Uncertain population forecasts
Nico Keilman
Abstract
Traditional population forecasts made by statistical agencies do not quantify uncertainty. But demographers and statisticians have developed methods to calculate probabilistic forecasts.
The demographic future of any human population is uncertain, but some of the many possible trajectories are more probable than others. So attempts to forecast demographic aspects of a population, such as its size by a given year, should include two elements: a range of possible outcomes, and a probability attached to that range.
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