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Scientific Correspondence
Nature 399, 423 (3 June 1999) | doi:10.1038/20839
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Climate change related to egg-laying trends
Humphrey Q. P. Crick1 & Timothy H. Sparks2
Abstract
Analysis of 20 species of UK breeding birds over a 25-year period found a long-term trend towards earlier egg-laying1. Further studies have correlated such trends with spring temperatures (one species)2 or the North Atlantic Oscillation (three species)3. We have studied a data set spanning 57 years and find that laying date is related to temperature or rainfall for 31 of 36 species (86%), and that 53% of species show long-term trends in laying date over time, of which 37% can be statistically accounted for by changes in climate. These data provide evidence for the large-scale impact of rising temperatures on wildlife. Our analysis of a UKCIP98 national-level climate scenario4 predicts that average laying dates will be even earlier for 75% of species by the year 2080.
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