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Present and future trends in the atmospheric burden of ozone-depleting halogens

Nature volume 398, pages 690–694 (1999)Cite this article

Abstract

The burden of ozone-depleting chemicals in the lower atmosphere has been decreasing since 1994 as a result of the Montreal Protocol1,3. Here we show how individual chemicals have influenced this decline, in order to estimate how the burden could change in the near future. Our measurements of atmospheric concentrations of the persistent, anthropogenic chemicals that account for most ozone-depleting halogens in today's stratosphere show that the decline stems predominantly from the decrease in the atmospheric load of trichloroethane (CH3CCl3), a previously common cleaning solvent. The influence of this chemical on the decline has now peaked, however, and will become much smaller over the next five to ten years. As this influence lessens, a decrease in theburden of ozone-depleting halogen will be sustained only if emissions of other halocarbons fall. Although emissions of most gases regulated by the Montreal Protocol have decreased substantially over the past ten years (refs 4), emissions of the potent ozone-depleting gas CBrClF2 (halon-1211) have remained fairly constant during this period12,29, despite stringent limits on production in developed countries since 1994. The consequent atmospheric accumulation of this halon is retarding the decline of ozone-depleting halogens in the atmosphere more than any other persistent gas.

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Figure 1: Measured mixing ratios.
Figure 2: Trends in the rate of change and burden of EECl.
Figure 3: Halocarbon emissions derived from atmospheric measurements.

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Acknowledgements

We thank all personnel involved in collecting flask samples at the NOAA/CMDL Observatories and at cooperative sampling sites. S.A.M. appreciates discussions and suggestions from S.Solomon and P. Midgley, and we appreciate the past technical assistance of R. C. Myers and T. H. Swanson. This work was supported in part by NOAA's Radiatively Important Trace Species research and by the Atmospheric Chemistry project of the NOAA Climate and Global Change Program.

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Author notes

  1. A. D. Clarke

    Present address: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, South Pole, Antarctica

Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, 80303, Colorado, USA

    S. A. Montzka, J. H. Butler, J.W. Elkins & T. M. Thompson

  2. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, 80309, Colorado, USA

    A. D. Clarke & L. T. Lock

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  1. S. A. Montzka
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Correspondence to S. A. Montzka.

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Montzka, S., Butler, J., Elkins, J. et al. Present and future trends in the atmospheric burden of ozone-depleting halogens. Nature 398, 690–694 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1038/19499

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