1. Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield SI0 2TN, UK
2. Present address: Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903, USA.

Correspondence to: Mingkui Cao^1,2 Correspondence and request for materials should be addressed to M.C. (e-mail: Email: mc5m@virgina.edu).

Abstract

Terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system are closely coupled, particularly by cycling of carbon between vegetation, soils and the atmosphere. It has been suggested¹,² that changes in climate and in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have modified the carbon cycle so as to render terrestrial ecosystems as substantial carbon sinks³,⁴; but direct evidence for this is very limited⁵,⁶. Changes in ecosystem carbon stocks caused by shifts between stable climate states have been evaluated⁷,⁸, but the dynamic responses of ecosystem carbon fluxes to transient climate changes are still poorly understood. Here we use a terrestrial biogeochemical model⁹, forced by simulations of transient climate change with a general circulation model¹⁰, to quantify the dynamic variations in ecosystem carbon fluxes induced by transient changes in atmospheric CO₂ and climate from 1861 to 2070. Wepredict that these changes increase global net ecosystem production significantly, but that this response will decline as the CO₂ fertilization effect becomes saturated and is diminished by changes in climatic factors. Thus terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes both respond to and strongly influence the atmospheric CO₂ increase and climate change.

1. Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield SI0 2TN, UK
2. Present address: Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903, USA.

Correspondence to: Mingkui Cao^1,2 Correspondence and request for materials should be addressed to M.C. (e-mail: Email: mc5m@virgina.edu).