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Risk of sea-change in the Atlantic

Nature volume 388, pages 825–826 (1997)Cite this article

Emissions of greenhouse gases could weaken or even halt ocean overturning in the North Atlantic, radically al tering the regional climate. It seems that the rate of greenhouse-gas increase may be as important as the final concentrations reached.

Will man-made climate change disrupt the ocean currents that have guaranteed Europe's mild climate for the past 10,000 years? A number of recent computer simulations as well as simple physical reasoning have hinted at such a possibility, but until now no systematic sensitivity study had been performed. On page 862 of this issue1, Stocker and Schmittner present such a study, albeit with a highly simplified climate model. They conclude that ocean circulation stability depends not only on the total amount of greenhouse gas emitted by human activities, but also on the rate at which the gases are pumped into the atmosphere. It could make all the difference whether greenhouse gas emissions are reduced or continue unabated in the coming decades.

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Figure 1: Europe's heating system.

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  1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany

    Stefan Rahmstorf

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  1. Stefan Rahmstorf
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Rahmstorf, S. Risk of sea-change in the Atlantic. Nature 388, 825–826 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1038/42127

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