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Decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature and climate

Nature volume 388, pages 563–567 (1997)Cite this article

Abstract

The weather at middle latitudes is largely unpredictable more than a week or so in advance, whereas fluctuations in the ocean may be predictable over much longer timescales. If decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature1,2,3,4,5,6 could be predicted, it might be possible to exploit their influence on the atmosphere7,8,9,10 to forecast decadal fluctuations in climate11. Here we report analyses of shipboard observations that indicate significant decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature, arising from the advective propagation of sea-surface-temperature anomalies4 and the existence of a regular period of 12–14 years in the propagating signals. The same timescale can be identified in a dipole-like pattern of North Atlantic sea-level pressure variability1,7,12. We propose a mechanism which may connect these oceanic and atmospheric fluctuations, possibly as part of a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode of variability7. Our results are encouraging for the prospects of forecasting natural fluctuations in the climate of the North Atlantic region several years in advance.

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Figure 1: a, The upper-ocean circulation in the North Atlantic according to ref. 16.
Figure 2: a, SST anomalies (colour scale in °C) as a function of time and distance along the path of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current.
Figure 3: The fraction of low-frequency local SST variability (grey-scale) and low-frequency local sea-level pressure variability (contours accounted for by a lagged version of the low-frequency SST variability in the storm-formation region, SFR; see Fig. 2 legend.

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Acknowledgements

We thank T. Haine for comments on earlier drafts, and W. Schmitz and M.McCartney for permission to reproduce Fig. 1a . R.T.S. was supported by the UK NERC Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme, M.R.A. was supported by the NERC/RAL Ocean Dynamics Service Level Agreement.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford, Parks Road, OX1 3PU, Oxford, UK

    R. T. Sutton & M. R. Allen

  2. Department of Meteorology, Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, University of Reading, PO Box 243, Earley Gate, RG6 6BB, Reading, UK

    R. T. Sutton

  3. Space Science Department, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, OX11 0QX, Chilton, UK

    M. R. Allen

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Correspondence to R. T. Sutton.

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Sutton, R., Allen, M. Decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature and climate. Nature 388, 563–567 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1038/41523

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