Abstract
THE El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a quasi-periodic interannual variation in global atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns, known to be correlated with variations in the global pattern of rainfall1–3. Good predictive models for ENSO, if they existed, would allow accurate prediction of global rainfall variations, thus leading to better management of world agricultural production4,5, as well as improving profits and reducing risks for farmers6,7. But our current ability to predict ENSO variation is limited. Here we describe a probabilistic rainfall 'forecasting' system that does not require ENSO predictive ability, but is instead based on the identification of lag-relationships between values of the Southern Oscillation Index, which provides a quantitative measure of the phase of the ENSO cycle, and future rainfall. The system provides rainfall probability distributions three to six months in advance for regions worldwide, and is simple enough to be incorporated into management systems now.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
$199.00 per year
only $3.90 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ropelewski, C. F. & Halpert, M. S. Mon. Weath. Rev. 115, 1606–1626 (1987).
Ropelewski, C. F. & Halpert, M. S. J. Clim. 9, 1043–1059 (1996).
Kiladis, G. N. & Diaz, H. F. J. Clim. 2, 1069–1090 (1989).
Nicholls, N. J. Climatol. 5, 553–560 (1985).
Cane, M. A., Eshel, G. & Buckland, R. W. Nature 370, 204–205 (1994).
Hammer, G. L., McKeon, G. M., Clewett, J. F. & Woodruff, D. R. in Proc. Conf. Agricultural Meteorology 15–23 (Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, 1991).
Hammer, G. L., Holzworth, D. P. & Stone, R. C. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 47, 717–737 (1996).
Troup, A. J. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 91, 490–506 (1965).
McBride, J. L. & Nicholls, N. Mon. Weath. Rev. 111, 1998–2004 (1983).
Chu, P. S. Int. J. Climatol. 9, 619–632 (1989).
Gordon, N. D. Mon. Weath. Rev. 114, 371–387 (1986).
Stone, R. C. & Auliciems, A. Int. J. Climatol. 12, 625–636 (1992).
Madden, R. A. & Julian, P. R. J. Atmos. Sci. 29, 1109–1123 (1972).
Williams, M. Relations between the Southern Oscillation and the Troposphere over Australia (Res. Rep. No. 6, Bureau of Meteorology Res. Centre, Melbourne, Australia, 1987).
Stone, R. C., Nicholls, N. & Hammer, G. L. J. Clim. 9, 1896–1909 (1996).
Meinke, H., Stone, R. C. & Hammer, G. L. Int. J. Climatol. 16, 783–789 (1996).
The Global Historical Climatology Network: Long-Term Monthly Precipitation, Sea-Level Pressure, and Station Pressure Data (Environ. Sci. Div. Publ. No. 3912, Oak Ridge Natl Lab., Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 1992).
Fraedrich, K. Tellus 46A, 541–552 (1994).
Clewett, J. F., Clarkson, N. M., Owens, D. T. & Arbrecht, D. G. Australian Rainman: Rainfall Information for Better Management (Dep of Primary Industries, Brisbane, Australia, 1994).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Stone, R., Hammer, G. & Marcussen, T. Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index. Nature 384, 252–255 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1038/384252a0
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/384252a0
This article is cited by
-
Application of the vector autoregressive model and the association between ocean indicators and rainfall anomalies in eastern Paraná State, Brazil
Theoretical and Applied Climatology (2023)
-
Increasing dominance of Indian Ocean variability impacts Australian wheat yields
Nature Food (2022)
-
Automated predictive analytics tool for rainfall forecasting
Scientific Reports (2021)
-
Revisiting the effect of extreme flooding on the chemistry of a large floodplain river: the example of Argentina’s middle Paraná
Environmental Earth Sciences (2021)
-
Influence of the Three Gorges Reservoir on climate drought in the Yangtze River Basin
Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2021)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.