Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and comets: assessing the hazard

Clark R. Chapman; David Morrison

doi:doi:10.1038/367033a0


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Nature 367, 33 - 40 (06 January 1994); doi:10.1038/367033a0

Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and comets: assessing the hazard

Clark R. Chapman & David Morrison

Planetary Science Institute, Science Applications International Corporation, 620 N. 6th Avenue, Tucson, Arizona 85705, USA.
Space Science Division, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California 94035, USA.

There is a 1-in-10,000 chance that a large (~2-km diameter) asteroid or comet will collide with the Earth during the next century, disrupting the ecosphere and killing a large fraction of the world's population. Although impacts of this magnitude are so infrequent as to be beyond our personal experience, the long-term statistical hazard is comparable to that of many other, more familiar natural disasters, raising the question of whether mitigation measures should be considered.

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