Nature 361, 523 - 526 (11 February 1993); doi:10.1038/361523a0

The transient response of terrestrial carbon storage to a perturbed climate

T. M. Smith & H. H. Shugart

Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903, USA

MODEL simulations suggest that at equilibrium, global warming driven by higher atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will lead to increased terrestrial carbon storage^1,2, implying a negative feedback between the global vegetation/soil system and the atmospheric CO₂ concentration. But changes in vegetation and soil type that result in a net release of CO₂ to the atmosphere (such as those caused by wildfires) could be more rapid than changes that result in a net increase in terrestrial carbon storage (such as species immigration and soil formation), so that in its transient response to climate change, the terrestrial vegetation/soil system could be a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. Here we use two general circulation models^3,4 to estimate the transient response of the terrestrial surface to a step doubling of atmospheric CO₂. We find that vegetation and soil changes could prove to be a significant source of CO₂ in the first 50–100 years following a climate warming, increasing the atmospheric CO₂ concentration by up to a third of the present level.

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