Nature 348, 595 - 599 (13 December 1990); doi:10.1038/348595a0

Seismic activity on neighbouring faults as a long-term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area

Lynn R. Sykes & Steven C. Jaumé

Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and Department of Geological Sciences, Columbia University, Palisades, New York 10964, USA

Activity in moderate-size earthquakes accelerated in the several decades before the large California earthquakes of 1989, 1906 and 1868. This type of precursor seems to require the presence of several major faults in close enough proximity to one another that moderate-size shocks are selectively triggered on surrounding faults during the latter stages of the cycle of strain buildup to large earthquakes. It may be possible to use quantitative aspects of similar seismic precursors to make predictions of large earthquakes on timescales of a few years to one decade.

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