Nature 345, 219 - 224 (17 May 1990); doi:10.1038/345219a0

Global climate change and US agriculture

Richard M. Adams^*, Cynthia Rosenzweig^†, Robert M. Peart^‡, Joe T. Ritchie^§, Bruce A. McCarl, J. David Glyer^¶, R. Bruce Curry^‡, James W. Jones^‡, Kenneth J. Boote^** & L. Hartwell Allen Jr^††

^*Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA
^†Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, New York, New York 10025, USA
^‡Department of Agricultural Engineering, University of Florida, Gamesville, Florida 32601, USA
^§Department of Crops and Soil Science, Michigan State University, East Lansmg, Michigan 48824, USA
Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A & M University, College Station, Texas 77843, USA
^¶Christensen and Associates, 4610 University Ave, Madison, Wisconsin 57305, USA
^**Department of Agronomy, University of Florida, Gamesville, Florida 32601, USA
^††USDA-ARS, Department of Agronomy, University of Florida, Gamesville, Florida 32601, USA

Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of US agriculture will shift. The impact on the US economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

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