Nature Publishing Group, publisher of Nature, and other science journals and reference works
Nature
my account e-alerts subscribe register
   
Thursday 20 July 2017
Journal Home
Current Issue
AOP
Archive
Download PDF
References
Export citation
Export references
Send to a friend
More articles like this

Article
Nature 343, 709 - 714 (22 February 1990); doi:10.1038/343709a0

Coherence established between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature

Cynthia Kuo, Craig Lindberg & David J. Thomson

Mathematical Sciences Research Center, AT&T Bell Labs, Murray Hill, New Jersey 07974, USA

The hypothesis that the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is related to observable changes in the climate is tested using modern methods of time-series analysis. The results confirm that average global temperature is increasing, and that temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide are significantly correlated over the past thirty years. Changes in carbon dioxide content lag those in temperature by five months.

------------------

References

1. Tyndall, J. Phil. Mag. 22, 160−194; 22, 273−285 (1863).
2. Arrhenius, S. Phil. Mag. 41, 237−276 (1896).
3. Houghton, R. A. in The Changing Carbon Cycle: A Global Analysis (eds Trabalka, J. R. & Reichle, D. E.) 175−193 (Springer, New York, 1986).
4. Schlesinger, W. H. in The Changing Carbon Cycle: A Global Analysis (eds Trabalka, J. R. & Reichle, D. E.) 194−220 (Springer, New York, 1986).
5. Rotty, R. M. & Marland, G. The Changing Carbon Cycle: A Global Analysis (eds Trabalka, J. R. & Reichle, D. E.) 474−490 (Springer, New York, 1986).
6. Seidel, S. & Keyes, D. Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming? Rep. No. EPA 23010:4001 (US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, 1983).
7. Budyko, M. I. Climatic Changes Ch. 7 (Waverly, Baltimore, 1977).
8. World Meteorological Organization Rep. World Conf. Changing Atmosphere (World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 1989).
9. National Research Council Changing Climate (Natn Acad. Press, Washington, DC, 1983).
10. Barnett, T. P. & Schlesinger, M. E. J. geophys. Res. 92, 14772−14780 (1987). | ChemPort |
11. Preisendorfer, R. W. & Barnett, T. P. J. atmos. Sci. 40, 1884−1896 (1983). | Article |
12. Solow, A. R. J. Clim. appl. Met. 26, 1401−1405 (1987).
13. Maddox, J. Nature 334, 9 (1988). | Article |
14. Kerr, R. A. Science 244, 1041−1043 (1989).
15. Broecker, W. S. Science 245, 451 (1989).
16. Schlesinger, M. E. Science 245, 451 (1989).
17. Risby, J. Science 245, 451−452 (1989).
18. Solow, A. R. & Broadus, J. M. Clim. Change (in the press).
19. Keeling, C. D., Bacastow, R. B., Carter, A. F., Piper, S. C. & Whorf, T. P. Am. geophys. Un., Geophys. Monogr. 55, 165−236 (1989).
20. Gammon, R. H., Komhyr, W. D. & Peterson, J. T. in The Changing Carbon Cycle: A Global Analysis (eds Trabalka, J. R. & Reichle, D. E.) 1−15 (Springer, New York, 1986).
21. Hansen, J. & Lebedeff, S. J. geophys. Res. 92, 13345−13372 (1987). | ISI |
22. Shapiro, R. J. atmos. Sci. 36, 1105−1116 (1979).
23. Pittock, A. B. Rev. Geophys. Space phys. 16, 400−420 (1978).
24. Tukey, J. W. Scripps Inst. Oceanogr. Ref. Ser. 84−5, 100−103 (1984).
25. Cleveland, W. S., Freeny, A. E. & Graedel, T. E. J. geophys. Res. 88, 10934−10946 (1983). | ChemPort |
26. Priestley, M. B. Spectral Analysis and Time Series (Academic, New York, 1981).
27. Brillinger, D. R. Time Series, Data Analysis and Theory (Holt, Rinehart & Winston, New York, 1975).
28. Thomson, D. J. Proc. IEEE 70, 1055−1096 (1982). | ISI |
29. Park, J., Lindberg, C. R. & Vernon, F. L. III J. geophys. Res. 92, 12675−12684 (1987). | ISI |
30. Grenander, U. Ann. math. Statist. 25, 252−272 (1954).
31. Brillinger, D. R. Biometrika 76, 23−30 (1989).
32. Slepian, D. Bell System Tech. J. 57, 1371−1429 (1978).
33. Belsley, D. A., Kuh, E. & Welsch, R. E. Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity (Wiley, New York, 1980).
34. Hays, J. D., Imbrie, J. & Shackleton, N. J. Science 194, 1121−1132 (1976). | ISI |
35. Imbrie, J. & Imbrie, J. Z. Science 207, 943−953 (1980). | ISI |
36. Pearson, E. S. & Hartley, H. O. Biometrika Tables for Statisticians 3rd edn Vol. 1, (Cambridge University Press, London, 1970).
37. Thomson, D. J. & Chave, A. D. Advances in Spectrum Estimation (ed. Haykin, S.) Ch. 2 (Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, in the press).
38. Thomson, D. J. Bell System Tech. J. 56, 1769−1815; 56, 1983−2005 (1977).
39. Daniel, C. & Wood, F. S. Fitting Equations to Data (Wiley, New York, 1980).
40. Lindberg, C. R. & Park, J. Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc. 91, 795−836 (1987).
41. Vernon, F. L. III, thesis, Univ. of California (San Diego) (1989).
42. Yule, G. U. & Kendall, M. G. An Introduction to the Theory of Statistics 14th edn (Hafner, New York, 1965).
43. Tukey, J. W. in Advanced Seminar on Spectral Analysis of Time Series (ed. Harris, B.) 25−46 (Wiley, New York, 1967).
44. Bloomfield, P. Fourier Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction (Wiley, New York, 1976).
45. Freiberger, W. F. in Time Series Analysis (ed. Rosenblatt, M.) 244−259 (Wiley, New York, 1963).
46. Panofsky, H. A. in Advanced Seminar on Spectral Analysis of Time Series (ed. Harris, B.) 109−132 (Wiley, New York, 1967).
47. Thomson, D. J. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. (in the press).
48. Knopoff, L. The Moon Ch 7 (Reidel, Dordrecht, 1970)
49. Kendall, M. & Stuart, A. The Advanced Theory of Statistics 4th edn, Vol 1, Ch. 16 (Macmillan, New York, 1979).



© 1990 Nature Publishing Group
Privacy Policy