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Relation between increasing methane and the presence of ice clouds at the mesopause

Abstract

TRENDS of increasing atmospheric methane, carbon dioxide and other species have now been identified1. It is well-known that water vapour is an important product of methane oxidation in the stratosphere2,3 and here we investigate the possibility that a substantial change has occurred in middle-atmospheric water vapour as a result of the increase in methane over the past century and a half. We show from modelling of mesopheric ice-particle formation that noctilucent cloud brightness should be a sensitive indicator of the water content at the high-latitude summertime mesopause (at a height of 85 km). Blake and Rowland4 have recently suggested that the occurrence of polar stratospheric clouds may be increasing because of increasing methane. We look at the record of noctilucent cloud occurrence for which the historical record is more complete. We find that noctilucent clouds are absent from the historical record before 1885, which is consistent with our hypothesis.

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Thomas, G., Olivero, J., Jensen, E. et al. Relation between increasing methane and the presence of ice clouds at the mesopause. Nature 338, 490–492 (1989). https://doi.org/10.1038/338490a0

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