Nature 232, 414 - 416 (06 August 1971); doi:10.1038/232414a0

Evaluation of Compound Probabilities in Sequential Choice

JOHN COHEN, E. I. CHESNICK & D. HARAN

Department of Psychology, University of Manchester

SITUATIONS frequently occur in which a successful outcome depends on an individual making a correct choice at each of several more or less independent stages. The choice of mode of transport at various stages of a journey is one example. Comparable predicaments occur in professional, administrative, political and military life, and in communication networks generally. The temporal order of the several choices is not invariably a vital factor. Furthermore, the situation as a whole may have a stochastic character in that the probability of correct choice may vary from stage to stage.

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