is currently a reader in seismology and rock physics at the University
of Edinburgh. His main research interests are in earthquake physics,
seismotectonics, seismic hazard and fluid-rock interactions. He gave the
1997 Bullerwell Lecture in geophysics, is a past member of the International
Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interrior subcommission
on 'modelling the earthquake source', and is a past board member of the
International Seismological Centre governing council. He is currently
associate editor for 'Journal of Geophysical Research' and 'Natural Hazards'.
Professor Robert J. Geller
is a seismologist at Tokyo
University. His main research interests are numerical modelling of
seismic wave propagation and inversion of observed seismic data to determine
the 3-D structure of the Earth's interior. He has never attempted to predict
earthquakes, and has been sceptical about prediction research since watching
the rise and fall of the 1970s prediction boom at close-hand while a graduate
student. His involvement in the debate on prediction began in 1991, with
the publication of a Commentary in Nature (352, 275-276).
Since then he has published extensively on this subject (see annotated
bibliography). Please address reprint requests and other correspondence
Professor Max Wyss
received a diploma in Geophysics from the Federal Institute of Technology,
in Zurich, Switzerland and a Ph.D. in Seismology from the California Institute
of Technology, in Pasadena, California. He is the chairman of the IASPEI
(International Association of Seismology and the Physics of the Earth's
Interior) sub-commission on earthquake prediction. Since 1991 he has occupied
the Wadati Chair of Seismology at the Geophysical
Institute of the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, where he studies
problems of earthquake prediction, seismic hazard, asperities in fault
zones, mapping of magma chambers beneath volcanoes and estimating stress
orientations from fault plane solutions.
Dr Pascal Bernard
is a physicist
specializing in seismology. He is director of the Laboratory of Seismogenesis
in the Seismological Department of IPGP. For the last 15 years his research
has been focussed chiefly on seismic sources, mainly from the seismological
point of view, but also following a multidisciplinary approach for some
large earthquakes thanks to the collaboration with geodesians and geologists.
He has recently become the coordinator of the GAIA European project for
the monitoring of crustal instabilities and earthquake precursors in the
rift of Corinth, Greece.
Dr. Andrew Michael
has been a geophysicist with the U.S.
Geological Survey's Earthquake Hazards Team in Menlo Park, California,
since 1986. As an observational seismologist his research interests include
structural constraints on earthquake rupture, the evolution of fault zones,
interactions between earthquakes and stress, earthquake prediction including
the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment, and the rapid dissemination
of earthquake information. A graduate of MIT
and Stanford University,
he has taught at both Stanford
and the University of
California at Davis and is an associate editor of the Bulletin of
Society of America.
Professor Christopher Scholz
Professor Leon Knopoff
holds the chair of Earth Sciences at the Lamont-Doherty
Earth Observatory of Columbia
University. He is author of 'The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting'
(Cambridge, 1990), 'Fieldwork: a Geologist's Memoir of the Kalahari' (Princeton,
1997), and over 150 research articles. He was a developer, in the early
'70's, of the dilatancy-diffusion theory of earthquake prediction - a
theory which had a brief heyday but is no longer in fashion. He has not
worked on earthquake prediction, as such, in the past 20 years.
is Emeritus Professor of Physics and Geophysics in the Department
of Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA.
He is interested in the physics of self-organizing dissipative systems,
with special emphasis on the problems of the clustering of earthquakes.
Of particular concern has been the study of self-organizing processes under
the influence of non-uniform geometries, and under the influence of various
models of the interactions over short time scales, both of which control
the large-scale evolution in time and space, with special attention paid
to the stability and stationarity of such coupled-map systems. He is concerned
with modelling the dynamics of growth and healing of fractures in brittle
Professor David D. Jackson
is Science Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center
and holds the chair of Geophysics at the University of California
at Los Angeles. He earned a B.S. in Physics at the California Institute
of Technology in 1965 and a Ph.D. in Geophysics and Space Physics at MIT
in 1969. His research includes inverse theory, hypothesis testing,
earthquake forecasting, and hazard estimation.