debates 25 March 1999

MAX WYSS

In his contribution to this debate of 11th March (week 3), Geller makes a significant error. Contrary to his statement "increased moment release [more small earthquakes than usual]", increased moment release is mostly due to large (M7) and medium magnitude (M6) earthquakes, not small ones.1-5

Max Wyss
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA.


References

  1. Varnes, D.J., Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity. Pageoph, 130, 661-686 (1989).
  2. Sykes, L.R. & Jaume, S.C. Seismic activity on neighboring faults as a long-term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area. Nature, 348, 595-599 (1990).
  3. Jaume, S.C. & Sykes, L.R. Evolution of moderate seismicity in the San Francisco Bay region, 1850 to 1993: Seismicity changes related to occurrence of large and great earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 765-790 (1996).
  4. Bufe, C.G., Nishenko, S.P. & Varnes, D.J. Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian region. Pageoph, 142, 83-99 (1994).
  5. Sornette, D. & Sammis, C.G. Complex critical components from renormalization group theory of earthquakes: Implications for earthquake prediction. J. Phys. France 5, 607-619 (1995).


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