Volume 1 Issue 1 January 2017

Volume 1 Issue 1

Childhood forecasting

Policymakers are interested in identifying the most effective approach to early childhood interventions. By linking data from a 40-year birth cohort study with multiple administrative databases, Caspi et al. show that 20% of the population accounts for close to 80% of economic burden. This group can be predicted with high accuracy from as early as age 3.

 

See Caspi et al. 1, 0005 (2016).

Cover design: Sam Whitham.

Editorials

  • Editorial |

    Individual and collective human behaviour is studied by numerous fields, spanning the social and natural sciences and beyond. Genuine progress in understanding human behaviour can only be achieved through a multidisciplinary community effort. Nature Human Behaviour aims to foster that effort.

  • Editorial |

    Authors who wish to publish their work with us have the option of a registered report. With this format, acceptance in principle happens before the research outcomes are known. As a result, publication bias is neutralized, as are incentives for practices that undermine the validity of scientific research.

Correspondence

Comment and Opinion

  • Comment |

    To understand voting behaviour, we must consider voters' emotions and their interaction with electoral arrangements and the complex functions elections serve in democracies. We can then optimize voting via electoral ergonomics — the design of electoral arrangements that consider voters' bodies and minds.

    • Michael Bruter
    •  & Sarah Harrison
  • Comment |

    The brain can be viewed as an organic computer that can be reprogrammed to incorporate external elements, such as artificial tools. But is there a risk that our increasing reliance on digital devices, such as smartphones, could also be reprogramming our brains and blunting our human attributes?

    • Miguel A. L. Nicolelis
  • Comment |

    Despite significant investment, contemporary anticorruption efforts have failed to be effective. A new index — the Index of Public Integrity — offers a transparent, evidence-based approach to controlling corruption and measuring progress.

    • Alina Mungiu-Pippidi
  • Comment |

    Performance data is dominating education policy, with many researchers and policymakers convinced that a data-based approach results in improved performance. The implications of this should be questioned by the research community to promote debate and consideration of choices excluded by data dependency.

    • Jenny Ozga
  • Comment |

    As humans, our decision-making process is biased towards maintaining the status quo, even if an alternative choice has substantial long-term benefits. This cognitive myopia and present bias, when applied to decisions that affect sustainability, could be threatening our future.

    • Elke U. Weber

Feature

  • Feature |

    Researchers dig deeper into why the cultural practice of female genital cutting continues — and how best to halt it.

    • Kendall Powell

Research Highlights

News & Views

  • News and Views |

    A new theory of city size, embodying ideas from economic complexity and cultural evolution, provides a rich basis for speculating on their economic structure and suggests hints as to how old cities might regenerate their past prosperity and how new ones might generate more success.

    • Michael Batty
  • News and Views |

    Confronting fears is a core component of cognitive behavioural therapies for anxiety disorders, but also a major hurdle for patients. A new study introduces a method for reducing defensive responses without consciously confronting the threatening cues, paving the way for fear-reducing therapies via unconscious processing.

    • Daniela Schiller
  • News and Views |

    A study now shows that 20% of the population accounts for 60–80% of several adult social ills. Outcomes for this group can be accurately predicted from as early as age 3 years, using a small set of indicators of disadvantage. This finding supports policies that target children from disadvantaged families.

    • James J. Heckman
    •  & Jorge Luís García

Perspectives

  • Perspective |

    Duncan Watts considers whether many branches of social science could benefit from setting research goals aimed at specific and manageable real-world problems. He gives examples and discusses how more solution-oriented social science might work.

    • Duncan J. Watts
  • Perspective |

    Leading voices in the reproducibility landscape call for the adoption of measures to optimize key elements of the scientific process.

    • Marcus R. Munafò
    • , Brian A. Nosek
    • , Dorothy V. M. Bishop
    • , Katherine S. Button
    • , Christopher D. Chambers
    • , Nathalie Percie du Sert
    • , Uri Simonsohn
    • , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers
    • , Jennifer J. Ware
    •  & John P. A. Ioannidis

Research

  • Letter |

    Gomez-Lievano and colleagues develop a new theory of scaling in cities — how the prevalence of phenomena such as education and crime changes with population size — by unifying models of economic complexity and cultural evolution.

    • Andres Gomez-Lievano
    • , Oscar Patterson-Lomba
    •  & Ricardo Hausmann
  • Letter |

    By analysing the supermarket purchases of more than 280,000 people over several years, Riefer et al. show that people’s preferences follow their choices, rather than the other way around.

    • Peter S. Riefer
    • , Rosie Prior
    • , Nicholas Blair
    • , Giles Pavey
    •  & Bradley C. Love
  • Letter |

    The authors asked human participants to listen to and imitate randomly generated drumming sequences from each other. Participants turned initially random sequences into rhythmically structured patterns that are characterized by all six statistical universals found in world music.

    • Andrea Ravignani
    • , Tania Delgado
    •  & Simon Kirby
  • Letter |

    Faces are positioned in a statistical distribution of faces extracted from the environment. Social inferences from faces (for example, trustworthiness) arise from the statistical position of faces in this learned distribution.

    • Ron Dotsch
    • , Ran R. Hassin
    •  & Alexander Todorov
  • Letter |

    He and colleagues show that attention plays a key role in anchoring visual orientation in 3D space. The effect of attention was contingent on the ground being visible, suggesting our terrestrial visual system is best served by its ecological niche.

    • Liu Zhou
    • , Chenglong Deng
    • , Teng Leng Ooi
    •  & Zijiang J. He
  • Letter |

    Koizumi and colleagues show that it is possible to reduce fear without explicit representations of feared objects by pairing rewards with activation patterns in the visual cortex that represent a conditioned stimulus, while participants remain unaware of the purpose of the procedure.

    • Ai Koizumi
    • , Kaoru Amano
    • , Aurelio Cortese
    • , Kazuhisa Shibata
    • , Wako Yoshida
    • , Ben Seymour
    • , Mitsuo Kawato
    •  & Hakwan Lau
  • Letter |

    Using whole-genome data for single-nucleotide polymorphism and results from genome-wide association studies, the authors show that people’s preference for pairing with those with similar phenotypic traits has genetic causes and consequences.

    • Matthew R. Robinson
    • , Aaron Kleinman
    • , Mariaelisa Graff
    • , Anna A. E. Vinkhuyzen
    • , David Couper
    • , Michael B. Miller
    • , Wouter J. Peyrot
    • , Abdel Abdellaoui
    • , Brendan P. Zietsch
    • , Ilja M. Nolte
    • , Jana V. van Vliet-Ostaptchouk
    • , Harold Snieder
    • , The LifeLines Cohort Study
    • , Behrooz Z. Alizadeh
    • , H. Marike Boezen
    • , Lude Franke
    • , Pim van der Harst
    • , Gerjan Navis
    • , Marianne Rots
    • , Harold Snieder
    • , Morris Swertz
    • , Bruce H. R. Wolffenbuttel
    • , Cisca Wijmenga
    • , Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium
    • , Goncalo R. Abecasis
    • , Devin Absher
    • , Helene Alavere
    • , Eva Albrecht
    • , Hana Lango Allen
    • , Peter Almgren
    • , Najaf Amin
    • , Philippe Amouyel
    • , Denise Anderson
    • , Alice M. Arnold
    • , Dominique Arveiler
    • , Thor Aspelund
    • , Folkert W. Asselbergs
    • , Themistocles L. Assimes
    • , Mustafa Atalay
    • , Antony P. Attwood
    • , Larry D. Atwood
    • , Stephan J. L. Bakker
    • , Beverley Balkau
    • , Anthony J. Balmforth
    • , Cristina Barlassina
    • , Inês Barroso
    • , Hanneke Basart
    • , Sabrina Bauer
    • , Jacques S. Beckmann
    • , John P. Beilby
    • , Amanda J. Bennett
    • , Yoav Ben-Shlomo
    • , Richard N. Bergman
    • , Sven Bergmann
    • , Sonja I. Berndt
    • , Reiner Biffar
    • , Anna Maria Di Blasio
    • , Bernhard O. Boehm
    • , Michael Boehnke
    • , Heiner Boeing
    • , Eric Boerwinkle
    • , Jennifer L. Bolton
    • , Amélie Bonnefond
    • , Lori L. Bonnycastle
    • , Dorret I. Boomsma
    • , Ingrid B. Borecki
    • , Stefan R. Bornstein
    • , Nabila Bouatia-Naji
    • , Gabrielle Boucher
    • , Jennifer L. Bragg-Gresham
    • , Paolo Brambilla
    • , Marcel Bruinenberg
    • , Thomas A. Buchanan
    • , Christa Buechler
    • , Gemma Cadby
    • , Harry Campbell
    • , Mark J. Caulfield
    • , Christine Cavalcanti-Proença
    • , Giancarlo Cesana
    • , Stephen J. Chanock
    • , Daniel I. Chasman
    • , Yii-Der Ida Chen
    • , Peter S. Chines
    • , Deborah J Clegg
    • , Lachlan Coin
    • , Francis S. Collins
    • , John M. Connell
    • , William Cookson
    • , Matthew N. Cooper
    • , Damien C. Croteau-Chonka
    • , L. Adrienne Cupples
    • , Daniele Cusi
    • , Felix R. Day
    • , Ian N. M. Day
    • , George V. Dedoussis
    • , Mariano Dei
    • , Panos Deloukas
    • , Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis
    • , Antigone S. Dimas
    • , Maria Dimitriou
    • , Stavroula Kanoni
    • , Markus M. Nöthen
    • , Nelson B. Freimer
    • , Ellen A. Nohr
    • , Anne U. Jackson
    • , Mattias Lorentzon
    • , Johanna Kuusisto
    • , Markus Perola
    • , Michael R. Erdos
    • , Peter Kovacs
    • , Christian Hengstenberg
    • , Brenda Penninx
    • , Liming Liang
    • , Melanie M. Van der Klauw
    • , Paul M. Ridker
    • , Willem H. Ouwehand
    • , Torben Hansen
    • , Claudia Langenberg
    • , Kaisa Silander
    • , Karen L. Mohlke
    • , Zoltán Kutalik
    • , Robert J. Weyant
    • , Jana V. Van Vliet-Ostaptchouk
    • , John-Olov Jansson
    • , Pekka Jousilahti
    • , Raimund Erbel
    • , Christopher C. Holmes
    • , Tom Wilsgaard
    • , Mika Kivimaki
    • , Nicholas G. Martin
    • , Jonathan C. Stephens
    • , Igor Rudan
    • , Aila Rissanen
    • , Sekar Kathiresan
    • , Andrew T. Hattersley
    • , Barbara Ludwig
    • , Peter M. Visscher
    • , Tõnu Esko
    • , Michel Marre
    • , Mika Kähönen
    • , Ross M. Fraser
    • , Mario A. Morken
    • , Jonathan Tyrer
    • , Kristian Hveem
    • , Niina Eklund
    • , Fernando Rivadeneira
    • , Tiinamaija Tuomi
    • , Annette Peters
    • , Henry Völzke
    • , Mika Kivmaki
    • , Matt McGue
    • , Steve E. Humphries
    • , Tanya M. Teslovich
    • , Iris M. Heid
    • , Anders Hamsten
    • , Gudmar Thorleifsson
    • , Gérard Waeber
    • , Antonio Liuzzi
    • , Jeffrey R. O’Connell
    • , Fredrik Karpe
    • , Alena Stančáková
    • , Kati Kristiansson
    • , Brian Thomson
    • , Eleanor Wheeler
    • , Pamela A. Madden
    • , Vincent Vatin
    • , Ivana Kolcic
    • , Veronique Vitart
    • , Toby Johnson
    • , Nicole Soranzo
    • , Johan G. Eriksson
    • , Heikki Huikuri
    • , Marika Kaakinen
    • , Peter E. H. Schwarz
    • , Alex N. Parker
    • , Nancy L. Pedersen
    • , Guo Li
    • , Kari E. North
    • , Guillaume Paré
    • , Kari Stefansson
    • , Steven A. McCaroll
    • , James Nemesh
    • , Joshua C. Randall
    • , H-Erich Wichmann
    • , Antti Jula
    • , Jennifer G. Sambrook
    • , Matti Uusitupa
    • , Josine L. Min
    • , Patrik K. E. Magnusson
    • , Gerry Fowkes
    • , Nicole L. Glazer
    • , Serena Sanna
    • , Eero Kajantie
    • , Kirsi H. Pietiläinen
    • , Lude Franke
    • , Claudia B. Volpato
    • , Joshua W. Knowles
    • , Thomas Illig
    • , Martin Ridderstråle
    • , Timo A. Lakka
    • , Lars Lind
    • , Rona J Strawbridge
    • , Ruth J. F. Loos
    • , Debbie A. Lawlor
    • , Alan F. Wright
    • , Thomas Quertermous
    • , Thomas W. Winkler
    • , Samuli Ripatti
    • , Elena Tremoli
    • , Sirkka M. Keinanen-Kiukaanniemi
    • , Philippe Froguel
    • , John R. B. Perry
    • , Evelin Mihailov
    • , John F. Peden
    • , Jennifer R. Kulzer
    • , Vincent Mooser
    • , Alexander Teumer
    • , Alan L. James
    • , Jianjun Liu
    • , David-Alexandre Tregouet
    • , Cornelia M. van Duijn
    • , Elisabeth Widen
    • , Emil Rehnberg
    • , Thomas Meitinger
    • , Tuomas O. Kilpeläinen
    • , Kari Kuulasmaa
    • , Heribert Schunkert
    • , Lili Milani
    • , Kaarel Krjutškov
    • , Teresa Ferreira
    • , Carlos Iribarren
    • , Veikko Salomaa
    • , Carolina Medina-Gomez
    • , Diana Kuh
    • , Benjamin F. Voight
    • , Kristian Midthjell
    • , Paavo Zitting
    • , Christopher J. Groves
    • , Andrew D. Morris
    • , Mieke D. Trip
    • , Karl-Heinz Jöckel
    • , Gonneke Willemsen
    • , Tove Fall
    • , Rainer Rauramaa
    • , Åsa Johansson
    • , Stefan Gaget
    • , Davide Gentilini
    • , Aarno Palotie
    • , Cecilia M. Lindgren
    • , Thomas Person
    • , Neil R. Robertson
    • , Shah Ebrahim
    • , Sang Hong Lee
    • , Claudia Lamina
    • , Sabine Schipf
    • , Ozren Polasek
    • , Yi-Juan Hu
    • , Jon P. Krohn
    • , Camilla Sandholt
    • , Hugh Watkins
    • , Ilja M. Nolte
    • , Richard M. Watanabe
    • , Charles C. White
    • , Thomas W. Mìhleisen
    • , Jan H. Smit
    • , Andrew P. Morris
    • , Robert C. Kaplan
    • , Caroline S. Fox
    • , David P Strachan
    • , Neelam Hassanali
    • , Jian Yang
    • , Klaus Stark
    • , Caroline Hayward
    • , Tamara B. Harris
    • , Candace Guiducci
    • , Andrew A. Hicks
    • , Douglas F. Levinson
    • , Heather M. Stringham
    • , Jaakko Kaprio
    • , Manuela Uda
    • , Anke Tönjes
    • , Gianluca Usala
    • , Jing Hua Zhao
    • , Elizabeth K. Speliotes
    • , Timo T. Valle
    • , Boris Skrobek
    • , Juha Sinisalo
    • , Stefan Gustafsson
    • , Marcus E. Kleber
    • , Jarmo Virtamo
    • , Henri Wallaschofski
    • , Cliona Molony
    • , Markku Laakso
    • , Michael Preuss
    • , Shengxu Li
    • , M. Carola Zillikens
    • , Ronald P. Stolk
    • , Stefano Signorini
    • , Wilmar Igl
    • , Massimo Mangino
    • , So-Youn Shin
    • , Krina T. Zondervan
    • , Aldi T. Kraja
    • , Jeanette Erdmann
    • , Mary F. Feitosa
    • , Sailaja Vedantam
    • , Stefan Schreiber
    • , Marco M. Ferrario
    • , Inger Njølstad
    • , Benjamin M. Neale
    • , Karl-Heinz Herzig
    • , Alan R. Sanders
    • , Jìrgen Gräßler
    • , Aparna Radhakrishnan
    • , Claes Ohlsson
    • , Albert Vernon Smith
    • , Jacqueline C. M. Witteman
    • , Chris Power
    • , Harold Snieder
    • , Ann-Christine Syvanen
    • , Erik Ingelsson
    • , Nicholas John Timpson
    • , Genovefa Kolovou
    • , Gert-Jan van Ommen
    • , Anna-Liisa Hartikainen
    • , Sarah E. Medland
    • , Markku S. Nieminen
    • , Joseph Hung
    • , Mao Fu
    • , Meena Kumari
    • , Susanne Moebus
    • , Unnur Thorsteinsdottir
    • , Leena Kinnunen
    • , Carolin Pìtter
    • , Amy J. Swift
    • , Inke R. König
    • , Andrew Wong
    • , Kari E. North
    • , Jennifer E. Huffman
    • , Augusto Rendon
    • , Lynda M. Rose
    • , Jian’an Luan
    • , Ben A. Oostra
    • , Liesbeth Vandenput
    • , Bernhard R. Winkelmann
    • , Hendrik Sager
    • , Lina Zgaga
    • , Jennie Hui
    • , Lee M. Kaplan
    • , Niina Pellikka
    • , Lu Qi
    • , Leena Peltonen
    • , Wolfgang Koenig
    • , Colin N. A. Palmer
    • , Eric E. Schadt
    • , Peter Vollenweider
    • , Alan R. Shuldiner
    • , G. Bragi Walters
    • , Cecile Lecoeur
    • , Lindsay L. Waite
    • , Shaun Purcell
    • , Ken K. Ong
    • , Inga Prokopenko
    • , Olli Raitakari
    • , Jaana Lindström
    • , Eva Fisher
    • , Marjo-Riitta Jarvelin
    • , Andres Metspalu
    • , Anneli Pouta
    • , Frank B. Hu
    • , Nigel W. Rayner
    • , Anne E. Justice
    • , Nicholas J. Wareham
    • , David Schlessinger
    • , W. H. Linda Kao
    • , Bruna Gigante
    • , Marjolein J. Peters
    • , Michael E. Goddard
    • , Aroon Hingorani
    • , Jianxin Shi
    • , Michael Stumvoll
    • , Cristen J. Willer
    • , Martina Mìller-Nurasyid
    • , Albertine J. Oldehinkel
    • , Krista Fischer
    • , Irene Pichler
    • , Dale R. Nyholt
    • , Femmie de Vegt
    • , Andre Scherag
    • , Ivonne Jarick
    • , André G. Uitterlinden
    • , David M Evans
    • , Karol Estrada
    • , Olivier Lantieri
    • , Lyle J. Palmer
    • , Carlo Rivolta
    • , Joyce B. J. van Meurs
    • , Narisu Narisu
    • , Torben Jørgensen
    • , Georg Homuth
    • , Johannes Hebebrand
    • , Ulf de Faire
    • , Vjekoslav Krzelj
    • , Jennifer Jolley
    • , Mari Nelis
    • , Timothy D. Spector
    • , Timothy Frayling
    • , Jean Ferrières
    • , Wendy L. McArdle
    • , Jorma Viikari
    • , Jaakko Tuomilehto
    • , Terho Lehtimäki
    • , Irene M. Leach
    • , Heyo K. Kroemer
    • , Sarah E. Hunt
    • , Miriam F. Moffatt
    • , Paul W. Franks
    • , Harald Grallert
    • , Kirsti Kvaloy
    • , Talin Haritunians
    • , Daniel R. Witte
    • , Lambertus A. Kiemeney
    • , Marja-Liisa Lokki
    • , John W. G. Yarnell
    • , Peter M. Visscher
    • , Dmitry Shungin
    • , Grant W. Montgomery
    • , Zhaoming Wang
    • , Andrea Ganna
    • , Jian Yang
    • , Ida Surakka
    • , Robert W. Lawrence
    • , Jaana H. Laitinen
    • , Henrik Grönberg
    • , Michael A. Province
    • , Nicholas G. Martin
    • , Kristina Eisinger
    • , Eirini V. Theodoraki
    • , George Davey Smith
    • , Ulf Gyllensten
    • , Sarah Edkins
    • , Dan-Yu Lin
    • , Anne McCarthy
    • , Bruce M. Psaty
    • , Matt J. Neville
    • , Elina Hyppönen
    • , Jouke-Jan Hottenga
    • , Ryan Welch
    • , Patrik K. E. Magnusson
    • , Paolo Manunta
    • , Anette P. Gjesing
    • , George Nicholson
    • , Peter Kraft
    • , Johannes Kettunen
    • , Eco J. C. Geus
    • , Lavinia Paternoster
    • , Marcus Dörr
    • , Lenore J. Launer
    • , Sarah E. Medland
    • , Anuj Goel
    • , Martin Farrall
    • , Nilesh J. Samani
    • , Sophie van Wingerden
    • , Anna L. Dixon
    • , G. Mark Lathrop
    • , Sonali Pechlivanis
    • , Joel N. Hirschhorn
    • , Gudny Eiriksdottir
    • , Keri L. Monda
    • , Barbara Thorand
    • , Aki S. Havulinna
    • , William G. Iacono
    • , Arthur W. Musk
    • , Kay-Tee Khaw
    • , Mark I. McCarthy
    • , Winfried März
    • , Frank Kee
    • , Robert N. Luben
    • , Barbara McKnight
    • , Vilmundur Gudnason
    • , Reedik Mägi
    • , Maris Teder-Laving
    • , Mari-Liis Tammesoo
    • , Patricia B. Munroe
    • , Kees G. Hovingh
    • , Francesca Frau
    • , Tsegaselassie Workalemahu
    • , Martin den Heijer
    • , Adam E. Locke
    • , Seppo Koskinen
    • , Guillaume Lettre
    • , Kevin B. Jacobs
    • , Carl G. P. Platou
    • , Valgerdur Steinthorsdottir
    • , Anke Hinney
    • , Oluf Pedersen
    • , Albert Hofman
    • , Leif C. Groop
    • , Kathleen Stirrups
    • , Michael F. Leitzmann
    • , Peter P. Pramstaller
    • , David Meyre
    • , James F. Wilson
    • , Christian Gieger
    • , Göran Hallmans
    • , Michael N. Weedon
    • , Bo Isomaa
    • , Sita H. Vermeulen
    • , Per Hall
    • , Jackie F. Price
    • , Nancy L. Heard-Costa
    • , Yudi Pawitan
    • , Karen Kapur
    • , Pim van der Harst
    • , Jouko Saramies
    • , Andrew C Heath
    • , Alistair S. Hall
    • , Thorkild I. A. Sørensen
    • , Andrew R. Wood
    • , Shamika Ketkar
    • , Julius S Ngwa
    • , Gerjan Navis
    • , Timo E. Saaristo
    • , Sarah H. Wild
    • , Diana Marek
    • , Bruce H. R. Wolffenbuttel
    • , Ulla Sovio
    • , Iain Mathieson
    • , Andrea Maschio
    • , Paul Elliott
    • , David Hunter
    • , Pablo V. Gejman
    • , Laura J. Scott
    •  & Christina Loley
  • Article |

    By linking data from a 40-year birth cohort study with multiple administrative databases, the authors show that 20% of the population accounts for close to 80% of economic burden. Strikingly, this group can be predicted with high accuracy from as early as 3 years old.

    • Avshalom Caspi
    • , Renate M. Houts
    • , Daniel W. Belsky
    • , Honalee Harrington
    • , Sean Hogan
    • , Sandhya Ramrakha
    • , Richie Poulton
    •  & Terrie E. Moffitt
  • Article |

    Every time we make a choice, we maintain an explicit representation of our confidence in that choice. Using eye-tracking and behavioural measures, the authors show that tracking decision uncertainty is helpful in guiding future behaviour.

    • Tomas Folke
    • , Catrine Jacobsen
    • , Stephen M. Fleming
    •  & Benedetto De Martino