Volume 1 Issue 1 January 2017

Volume 1 Issue 1

Childhood forecasting

Policymakers are interested in identifying the most effective approach to early childhood interventions. By linking data from a 40-year birth cohort study with multiple administrative databases, Caspi et al. show that 20% of the population accounts for close to 80% of economic burden. This group can be predicted with high accuracy from as early as age 3.

 

See Caspi et al. 1, 0005 (2016).

Cover design: Sam Whitham.

Editorials

  • Editorial |

    Individual and collective human behaviour is studied by numerous fields, spanning the social and natural sciences and beyond. Genuine progress in understanding human behaviour can only be achieved through a multidisciplinary community effort. Nature Human Behaviour aims to foster that effort.

  • Editorial |

    Authors who wish to publish their work with us have the option of a registered report. With this format, acceptance in principle happens before the research outcomes are known. As a result, publication bias is neutralized, as are incentives for practices that undermine the validity of scientific research.

Correspondence

Comment and Opinion

  • Comment |

    To understand voting behaviour, we must consider voters' emotions and their interaction with electoral arrangements and the complex functions elections serve in democracies. We can then optimize voting via electoral ergonomics — the design of electoral arrangements that consider voters' bodies and minds.

    • Michael Bruter
    •  & Sarah Harrison
  • Comment |

    The brain can be viewed as an organic computer that can be reprogrammed to incorporate external elements, such as artificial tools. But is there a risk that our increasing reliance on digital devices, such as smartphones, could also be reprogramming our brains and blunting our human attributes?

    • Miguel A. L. Nicolelis
  • Comment |

    Despite significant investment, contemporary anticorruption efforts have failed to be effective. A new index — the Index of Public Integrity — offers a transparent, evidence-based approach to controlling corruption and measuring progress.

    • Alina Mungiu-Pippidi
  • Comment |

    Performance data is dominating education policy, with many researchers and policymakers convinced that a data-based approach results in improved performance. The implications of this should be questioned by the research community to promote debate and consideration of choices excluded by data dependency.

    • Jenny Ozga
  • Comment |

    As humans, our decision-making process is biased towards maintaining the status quo, even if an alternative choice has substantial long-term benefits. This cognitive myopia and present bias, when applied to decisions that affect sustainability, could be threatening our future.

    • Elke U. Weber

Feature

  • Feature |

    Researchers dig deeper into why the cultural practice of female genital cutting continues — and how best to halt it.

    • Kendall Powell

Research Highlights

News & Views

  • News and Views |

    A new theory of city size, embodying ideas from economic complexity and cultural evolution, provides a rich basis for speculating on their economic structure and suggests hints as to how old cities might regenerate their past prosperity and how new ones might generate more success.

    • Michael Batty
  • News and Views |

    Confronting fears is a core component of cognitive behavioural therapies for anxiety disorders, but also a major hurdle for patients. A new study introduces a method for reducing defensive responses without consciously confronting the threatening cues, paving the way for fear-reducing therapies via unconscious processing.

    • Daniela Schiller
  • News and Views |

    A study now shows that 20% of the population accounts for 60–80% of several adult social ills. Outcomes for this group can be accurately predicted from as early as age 3 years, using a small set of indicators of disadvantage. This finding supports policies that target children from disadvantaged families.

    • James J. Heckman
    •  & Jorge Luís García

Perspectives

  • Perspective |

    Duncan Watts considers whether many branches of social science could benefit from setting research goals aimed at specific and manageable real-world problems. He gives examples and discusses how more solution-oriented social science might work.

    • Duncan J. Watts
  • Perspective | | open

    Leading voices in the reproducibility landscape call for the adoption of measures to optimize key elements of the scientific process.

    • Marcus R. Munafò
    • , Brian A. Nosek
    • , Dorothy V. M. Bishop
    • , Katherine S. Button
    • , Christopher D. Chambers
    • , Nathalie Percie du Sert
    • , Uri Simonsohn
    • , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers
    • , Jennifer J. Ware
    •  & John P. A. Ioannidis

Research

  • Letter |

    Gomez-Lievano and colleagues develop a new theory of scaling in cities — how the prevalence of phenomena such as education and crime changes with population size — by unifying models of economic complexity and cultural evolution.

    • Andres Gomez-Lievano
    • , Oscar Patterson-Lomba
    •  & Ricardo Hausmann
  • Letter |

    By analysing the supermarket purchases of more than 280,000 people over several years, Riefer et al. show that people’s preferences follow their choices, rather than the other way around.

    • Peter S. Riefer
    • , Rosie Prior
    • , Nicholas Blair
    • , Giles Pavey
    •  & Bradley C. Love
  • Letter |

    The authors asked human participants to listen to and imitate randomly generated drumming sequences from each other. Participants turned initially random sequences into rhythmically structured patterns that are characterized by all six statistical universals found in world music.

    • Andrea Ravignani
    • , Tania Delgado
    •  & Simon Kirby
  • Letter |

    Faces are positioned in a statistical distribution of faces extracted from the environment. Social inferences from faces (for example, trustworthiness) arise from the statistical position of faces in this learned distribution.

    • Ron Dotsch
    • , Ran R. Hassin
    •  & Alexander Todorov
  • Letter |

    He and colleagues show that attention plays a key role in anchoring visual orientation in 3D space. The effect of attention was contingent on the ground being visible, suggesting our terrestrial visual system is best served by its ecological niche.

    • Liu Zhou
    • , Chenglong Deng
    • , Teng Leng Ooi
    •  & Zijiang J. He
  • Letter |

    Koizumi and colleagues show that it is possible to reduce fear without explicit representations of feared objects by pairing rewards with activation patterns in the visual cortex that represent a conditioned stimulus, while participants remain unaware of the purpose of the procedure.

    • Ai Koizumi
    • , Kaoru Amano
    • , Aurelio Cortese
    • , Kazuhisa Shibata
    • , Wako Yoshida
    • , Ben Seymour
    • , Mitsuo Kawato
    •  & Hakwan Lau
  • Letter |

    Using whole-genome data for single-nucleotide polymorphism and results from genome-wide association studies, the authors show that people’s preference for pairing with those with similar phenotypic traits has genetic causes and consequences.

    • Matthew R. Robinson
    • , Aaron Kleinman
    • , Mariaelisa Graff
    • , Anna A. E. Vinkhuyzen
    • , David Couper
    • , Michael B. Miller
    • , Wouter J. Peyrot
    • , Abdel Abdellaoui
    • , Brendan P. Zietsch
    • , Ilja M. Nolte
    • , Jana V. van Vliet-Ostaptchouk
    • , Harold Snieder
    • , The LifeLines Cohort Study
    • , Behrooz Z. Alizadeh
    • , H. Marike Boezen
    • , Lude Franke
    • , Pim van der Harst
    • , Gerjan Navis
    • , Marianne Rots
    • , Harold Snieder
    • , Morris Swertz
    • , Bruce H. R. Wolffenbuttel
    • , Cisca Wijmenga
    • , Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium
    • , Goncalo R. Abecasis
    • , Devin Absher
    • , Helene Alavere
    • , Eva Albrecht
    • , Hana Lango Allen
    • , Peter Almgren
    • , Najaf Amin
    • , Philippe Amouyel
    • , Denise Anderson
    • , Alice M. Arnold
    • , Dominique Arveiler
    • , Thor Aspelund
    • , Folkert W. Asselbergs
    • , Themistocles L. Assimes
    • , Mustafa Atalay
    • , Antony P. Attwood
    • , Larry D. Atwood
    • , Stephan J. L. Bakker
    • , Beverley Balkau
    • , Anthony J. Balmforth
    • , Cristina Barlassina
    • , Inês Barroso
    • , Hanneke Basart
    • , Sabrina Bauer
    • , Jacques S. Beckmann
    • , John P. Beilby
    • , Amanda J. Bennett
    • , Yoav Ben-Shlomo
    • , Richard N. Bergman
    • , Sven Bergmann
    • , Sonja I. Berndt
    • , Reiner Biffar
    • , Anna Maria Di Blasio
    • , Bernhard O. Boehm
    • , Michael Boehnke
    • , Heiner Boeing
    • , Eric Boerwinkle
    • , Jennifer L. Bolton
    • , Amélie Bonnefond
    • , Lori L. Bonnycastle
    • , Dorret I. Boomsma
    • , Ingrid B. Borecki
    • , Stefan R. Bornstein
    • , Nabila Bouatia-Naji
    • , Gabrielle Boucher
    • , Jennifer L. Bragg-Gresham
    • , Paolo Brambilla
    • , Marcel Bruinenberg
    • , Thomas A. Buchanan
    • , Christa Buechler
    • , Gemma Cadby
    • , Harry Campbell
    • , Mark J. Caulfield
    • , Christine Cavalcanti-Proença
    • , Giancarlo Cesana
    • , Stephen J. Chanock
    • , Daniel I. Chasman
    • , Yii-Der Ida Chen
    • , Peter S. Chines
    • , Deborah J Clegg
    • , Lachlan Coin
    • , Francis S. Collins
    • , John M. Connell
    • , William Cookson
    • , Matthew N. Cooper
    • , Damien C. Croteau-Chonka
    • , L. Adrienne Cupples
    • , Daniele Cusi
    • , Felix R. Day
    • , Ian N. M. Day
    • , George V. Dedoussis
    • , Mariano Dei
    • , Panos Deloukas
    • , Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis
    • , Antigone S. Dimas
    • , Maria Dimitriou
    • , Anna L. Dixon
    • , Marcus Dörr
    • , Cornelia M. van Duijn
    • , Shah Ebrahim
    • , Sarah Edkins
    • , Gudny Eiriksdottir
    • , Kristina Eisinger
    • , Niina Eklund
    • , Paul Elliott
    • , Raimund Erbel
    • , Jeanette Erdmann
    • , Michael R. Erdos
    • , Johan G. Eriksson
    • , Tõnu Esko
    • , Karol Estrada
    • , David M Evans
    • , Ulf de Faire
    • , Tove Fall
    • , Martin Farrall
    • , Mary F. Feitosa
    • , Marco M. Ferrario
    • , Teresa Ferreira
    • , Jean Ferrières
    • , Krista Fischer
    • , Eva Fisher
    • , Gerry Fowkes
    • , Caroline S. Fox
    • , Lude Franke
    • , Paul W. Franks
    • , Ross M. Fraser
    • , Francesca Frau
    • , Timothy Frayling
    • , Nelson B. Freimer
    • , Philippe Froguel
    • , Mao Fu
    • , Stefan Gaget
    • , Andrea Ganna
    • , Pablo V. Gejman
    • , Davide Gentilini
    • , Eco J. C. Geus
    • , Christian Gieger
    • , Bruna Gigante
    • , Anette P. Gjesing
    • , Nicole L. Glazer
    • , Michael E. Goddard
    • , Anuj Goel
    • , Harald Grallert
    • , Jìrgen Gräßler
    • , Henrik Grönberg
    • , Leif C. Groop
    • , Christopher J. Groves
    • , Vilmundur Gudnason
    • , Candace Guiducci
    • , Stefan Gustafsson
    • , Ulf Gyllensten
    • , Alistair S. Hall
    • , Per Hall
    • , Göran Hallmans
    • , Anders Hamsten
    • , Torben Hansen
    • , Talin Haritunians
    • , Tamara B. Harris
    • , Pim van der Harst
    • , Anna-Liisa Hartikainen
    • , Neelam Hassanali
    • , Andrew T. Hattersley
    • , Aki S. Havulinna
    • , Caroline Hayward
    • , Nancy L. Heard-Costa
    • , Andrew C Heath
    • , Johannes Hebebrand
    • , Iris M. Heid
    • , Martin den Heijer
    • , Christian Hengstenberg
    • , Karl-Heinz Herzig
    • , Andrew A. Hicks
    • , Aroon Hingorani
    • , Anke Hinney
    • , Joel N. Hirschhorn
    • , Albert Hofman
    • , Christopher C. Holmes
    • , Georg Homuth
    • , Jouke-Jan Hottenga
    • , Kees G. Hovingh
    • , Frank B. Hu
    • , Yi-Juan Hu
    • , Jennifer E. Huffman
    • , Jennie Hui
    • , Heikki Huikuri
    • , Steve E. Humphries
    • , Joseph Hung
    • , Sarah E. Hunt
    • , David Hunter
    • , Kristian Hveem
    • , Elina Hyppönen
    • , Wilmar Igl
    • , Thomas Illig
    • , Erik Ingelsson
    • , Carlos Iribarren
    • , Bo Isomaa
    • , Anne U. Jackson
    • , Kevin B. Jacobs
    • , Alan L. James
    • , John-Olov Jansson
    • , Ivonne Jarick
    • , Marjo-Riitta Jarvelin
    • , Karl-Heinz Jöckel
    • , Åsa Johansson
    • , Toby Johnson
    • , Jennifer Jolley
    • , Torben Jørgensen
    • , Pekka Jousilahti
    • , Antti Jula
    • , Anne E. Justice
    • , Marika Kaakinen
    • , Mika Kähönen
    • , Eero Kajantie
    • , Stavroula Kanoni
    • , W. H. Linda Kao
    • , Lee M. Kaplan
    • , Robert C. Kaplan
    • , Jaakko Kaprio
    • , Karen Kapur
    • , Fredrik Karpe
    • , Sekar Kathiresan
    • , Frank Kee
    • , Sirkka M. Keinanen-Kiukaanniemi
    • , Shamika Ketkar
    • , Johannes Kettunen
    • , Kay-Tee Khaw
    • , Lambertus A. Kiemeney
    • , Tuomas O. Kilpeläinen
    • , Leena Kinnunen
    • , Mika Kivimaki
    • , Mika Kivmaki
    • , Melanie M. Van der Klauw
    • , Marcus E. Kleber
    • , Joshua W. Knowles
    • , Wolfgang Koenig
    • , Ivana Kolcic
    • , Genovefa Kolovou
    • , Inke R. König
    • , Seppo Koskinen
    • , Peter Kovacs
    • , Peter Kraft
    • , Aldi T. Kraja
    • , Kati Kristiansson
    • , Kaarel Krjutškov
    • , Heyo K. Kroemer
    • , Jon P. Krohn
    • , Vjekoslav Krzelj
    • , Diana Kuh
    • , Jennifer R. Kulzer
    • , Meena Kumari
    • , Zoltán Kutalik
    • , Kari Kuulasmaa
    • , Johanna Kuusisto
    • , Kirsti Kvaloy
    • , Markku Laakso
    • , Jaana H. Laitinen
    • , Timo A. Lakka
    • , Claudia Lamina
    • , Claudia Langenberg
    • , Olivier Lantieri
    • , G. Mark Lathrop
    • , Lenore J. Launer
    • , Debbie A. Lawlor
    • , Robert W. Lawrence
    • , Irene M. Leach
    • , Cecile Lecoeur
    • , Sang Hong Lee
    • , Terho Lehtimäki
    • , Michael F. Leitzmann
    • , Guillaume Lettre
    • , Douglas F. Levinson
    • , Guo Li
    • , Shengxu Li
    • , Liming Liang
    • , Dan-Yu Lin
    • , Lars Lind
    • , Cecilia M. Lindgren
    • , Jaana Lindström
    • , Jianjun Liu
    • , Antonio Liuzzi
    • , Adam E. Locke
    • , Marja-Liisa Lokki
    • , Christina Loley
    • , Ruth J. F. Loos
    • , Mattias Lorentzon
    • , Jian’an Luan
    • , Robert N. Luben
    • , Barbara Ludwig
    • , Pamela A. Madden
    • , Reedik Mägi
    • , Patrik K. E. Magnusson
    • , Massimo Mangino
    • , Paolo Manunta
    • , Diana Marek
    • , Michel Marre
    • , Nicholas G. Martin
    • , Winfried März
    • , Andrea Maschio
    • , Iain Mathieson
    • , Wendy L. McArdle
    • , Steven A. McCaroll
    • , Anne McCarthy
    • , Mark I. McCarthy
    • , Barbara McKnight
    • , Carolina Medina-Gomez
    • , Sarah E. Medland
    • , Thomas Meitinger
    • , Andres Metspalu
    • , Joyce B. J. van Meurs
    • , David Meyre
    • , Kristian Midthjell
    • , Evelin Mihailov
    • , Lili Milani
    • , Josine L. Min
    • , Susanne Moebus
    • , Miriam F. Moffatt
    • , Karen L. Mohlke
    • , Cliona Molony
    • , Keri L. Monda
    • , Grant W. Montgomery
    • , Vincent Mooser
    • , Mario A. Morken
    • , Andrew D. Morris
    • , Andrew P. Morris
    • , Thomas W. Mìhleisen
    • , Martina Mìller-Nurasyid
    • , Patricia B. Munroe
    • , Arthur W. Musk
    • , Narisu Narisu
    • , Gerjan Navis
    • , Benjamin M. Neale
    • , Mari Nelis
    • , James Nemesh
    • , Matt J. Neville
    • , Julius S Ngwa
    • , George Nicholson
    • , Markku S. Nieminen
    • , Inger Njølstad
    • , Ellen A. Nohr
    • , Ilja M. Nolte
    • , Kari E. North
    • , Markus M. Nöthen
    • , Dale R. Nyholt
    • , Jeffrey R. O’Connell
    • , Claes Ohlsson
    • , Albertine J. Oldehinkel
    • , Gert-Jan van Ommen
    • , Ken K. Ong
    • , Ben A. Oostra
    • , Willem H. Ouwehand
    • , Colin N. A. Palmer
    • , Lyle J. Palmer
    • , Aarno Palotie
    • , Guillaume Paré
    • , Alex N. Parker
    • , Lavinia Paternoster
    • , Yudi Pawitan
    • , Sonali Pechlivanis
    • , John F. Peden
    • , Nancy L. Pedersen
    • , Oluf Pedersen
    • , Niina Pellikka
    • , Leena Peltonen
    • , Brenda Penninx
    • , Markus Perola
    • , John R. B. Perry
    • , Thomas Person
    • , Annette Peters
    • , Marjolein J. Peters
    • , Irene Pichler
    • , Kirsi H. Pietiläinen
    • , Carl G. P. Platou
    • , Ozren Polasek
    • , Anneli Pouta
    • , Chris Power
    • , Peter P. Pramstaller
    • , Michael Preuss
    • , Jackie F. Price
    • , Inga Prokopenko
    • , Michael A. Province
    • , Bruce M. Psaty
    • , Shaun Purcell
    • , Carolin Pìtter
    • , Lu Qi
    • , Thomas Quertermous
    • , Aparna Radhakrishnan
    • , Olli Raitakari
    • , Joshua C. Randall
    • , Rainer Rauramaa
    • , Nigel W. Rayner
    • , Emil Rehnberg
    • , Augusto Rendon
    • , Martin Ridderstråle
    • , Paul M. Ridker
    • , Samuli Ripatti
    • , Aila Rissanen
    • , Fernando Rivadeneira
    • , Carlo Rivolta
    • , Neil R. Robertson
    • , Lynda M. Rose
    • , Igor Rudan
    • , Timo E. Saaristo
    • , Hendrik Sager
    • , Veikko Salomaa
    • , Nilesh J. Samani
    • , Jennifer G. Sambrook
    • , Alan R. Sanders
    • , Camilla Sandholt
    • , Serena Sanna
    • , Jouko Saramies
    • , Eric E. Schadt
    • , Andre Scherag
    • , Sabine Schipf
    • , David Schlessinger
    • , Stefan Schreiber
    • , Heribert Schunkert
    • , Peter E. H. Schwarz
    • , Laura J. Scott
    • , Jianxin Shi
    • , So-Youn Shin
    • , Alan R. Shuldiner
    • , Dmitry Shungin
    • , Stefano Signorini
    • , Kaisa Silander
    • , Juha Sinisalo
    • , Boris Skrobek
    • , Jan H. Smit
    • , Albert Vernon Smith
    • , George Davey Smith
    • , Harold Snieder
    • , Nicole Soranzo
    • , Thorkild I. A. Sørensen
    • , Ulla Sovio
    • , Timothy D. Spector
    • , Elizabeth K. Speliotes
    • , Alena Stančáková
    • , Klaus Stark
    • , Kari Stefansson
    • , Valgerdur Steinthorsdottir
    • , Jonathan C. Stephens
    • , Kathleen Stirrups
    • , Ronald P. Stolk
    • , David P Strachan
    • , Rona J Strawbridge
    • , Heather M. Stringham
    • , Michael Stumvoll
    • , Ida Surakka
    • , Amy J. Swift
    • , Ann-Christine Syvanen
    • , Mari-Liis Tammesoo
    • , Maris Teder-Laving
    • , Tanya M. Teslovich
    • , Alexander Teumer
    • , Eirini V. Theodoraki
    • , Brian Thomson
    • , Barbara Thorand
    • , Gudmar Thorleifsson
    • , Unnur Thorsteinsdottir
    • , Nicholas John Timpson
    • , Anke Tönjes
    • , David-Alexandre Tregouet
    • , Elena Tremoli
    • , Mieke D. Trip
    • , Tiinamaija Tuomi
    • , Jaakko Tuomilehto
    • , Jonathan Tyrer
    • , Manuela Uda
    • , André G. Uitterlinden
    • , Gianluca Usala
    • , Matti Uusitupa
    • , Timo T. Valle
    • , Liesbeth Vandenput
    • , Vincent Vatin
    • , Sailaja Vedantam
    • , Femmie de Vegt
    • , Sita H. Vermeulen
    • , Jorma Viikari
    • , Jarmo Virtamo
    • , Peter M. Visscher
    • , Veronique Vitart
    • , Jana V. Van Vliet-Ostaptchouk
    • , Benjamin F. Voight
    • , Peter Vollenweider
    • , Claudia B. Volpato
    • , Henry Völzke
    • , Gérard Waeber
    • , Lindsay L. Waite
    • , Henri Wallaschofski
    • , G. Bragi Walters
    • , Zhaoming Wang
    • , Nicholas J. Wareham
    • , Richard M. Watanabe
    • , Hugh Watkins
    • , Michael N. Weedon
    • , Ryan Welch
    • , Robert J. Weyant
    • , Eleanor Wheeler
    • , Charles C. White
    • , H-Erich Wichmann
    • , Elisabeth Widen
    • , Sarah H. Wild
    • , Gonneke Willemsen
    • , Cristen J. Willer
    • , Tom Wilsgaard
    • , James F. Wilson
    • , Sophie van Wingerden
    • , Bernhard R. Winkelmann
    • , Thomas W. Winkler
    • , Daniel R. Witte
    • , Jacqueline C. M. Witteman
    • , Bruce H. R. Wolffenbuttel
    • , Andrew Wong
    • , Andrew R. Wood
    • , Tsegaselassie Workalemahu
    • , Alan F. Wright
    • , Jian Yang
    • , John W. G. Yarnell
    • , Lina Zgaga
    • , Jing Hua Zhao
    • , M. Carola Zillikens
    • , Paavo Zitting
    • , Krina T. Zondervan
    • , Sarah E. Medland
    • , Nicholas G. Martin
    • , Patrik K. E. Magnusson
    • , William G. Iacono
    • , Matt McGue
    • , Kari E. North
    • , Jian Yang
    •  & Peter M. Visscher
  • Article |

    By linking data from a 40-year birth cohort study with multiple administrative databases, the authors show that 20% of the population accounts for close to 80% of economic burden. Strikingly, this group can be predicted with high accuracy from as early as 3 years old.

    • Avshalom Caspi
    • , Renate M. Houts
    • , Daniel W. Belsky
    • , Honalee Harrington
    • , Sean Hogan
    • , Sandhya Ramrakha
    • , Richie Poulton
    •  & Terrie E. Moffitt
  • Article |

    Every time we make a choice, we maintain an explicit representation of our confidence in that choice. Using eye-tracking and behavioural measures, the authors show that tracking decision uncertainty is helpful in guiding future behaviour.

    • Tomas Folke
    • , Catrine Jacobsen
    • , Stephen M. Fleming
    •  & Benedetto De Martino