Molecular Psychiatry

FIGURES AND TABLES

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Predicting the diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder using gene pathway analysis

E Skafidas, R Testa, D Zantomio, G Chana, I P Everall and C Pantelis

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Figure 1.

(a and b) Flow charts show the subjects used in the analyses. Key: AGRE, Autism Genetic Research Exchange; SFARI, Simons Foundation Autism Research Initiative; WTBC, Wellcome Trust 1958 normal birth cohort; CEU, of Central (Western and Northern) European origin; HAN, of Han Chinese origin; TSI, of Tuscan Italian origin; For panels 1a and b: ‘red boxes’—samples used in developing the predictive algorithm; ‘blue boxes’—samples used to investigate different ethnic groups; ‘green boxes’—validation sets; ‘light green boxes’—relatives assessed, including parents and unaffected siblings. Numbers in brackets represent numbers of males/females.

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Figure 2.

Cumulative coefficient estimation error and percentage classification error as a function of P-value; P=0.005 provides good trade-off between classification performance and cumulative regression coefficient error.

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Figure 3.

(a) Genetic-based classification of CEU population (AGRE and Controls) for ASD and non-ASD individuals, showing Gaussian approximation of distribution of individuals. As both the mapped ASD and control populations were well approximated by normal distributions, the asymptotic Test Positive Predictive Value (PPV) and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) was determined. For individuals with CEU ancestry, the PPV and NPV were 96.72% and 94.74%, respectively. (Note the test was substantially less predictive on individuals with different ancestry, that is, Han Chinese). (b) Genetic-based classification of CEU population, including first-degree relatives (parents and siblings of ASD children). Note that the distribution of relatives of ASD children maps between the ASD and the control groups, with no difference found between mothers and fathers (see Supplementary material S5). Key: ASD, autism spectrum disorder; relatives, first-degree relatives (parents and siblings); Siblings, siblings of ASD cases not meeting criteria for ASD; Autism Classifier Score, scores for each individual derived from the predictive algorithm, with greater values representing greater risk for autism.

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