Original Article

European Journal of Clinical Nutrition (2008) 62, 1405–1411; doi:10.1038/sj.ejcn.1602888; published online 22 August 2007

Growth around puberty as predictor of adult obesity

A M Toschke1,2, S Rückinger2, T Reinehr3 and R von Kries2

  1. 1Division of Health and Social Care Research, King's College London, London, UK
  2. 2Division of Epidemiology, Institute of Social Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich, Germany
  3. 3Vestische Hospital for Children and Adolescents, University of Witten/Herdecke, Germany

Correspondence: Dr AM Toschke, King's College London, Division of Health & Social Care Research, 7th Floor Capital House, 42 Weston St, London SE1 3QD, UK. E-mail: michael.toschke@kcl.ac.uk

Received 14 December 2006; Revised 12 July 2007; Accepted 20 July 2007; Published online 22 August 2007.

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Abstract

Objectives:

 

To contribute to the early risk identification of adult obesity, the anthropometric development in the first 23 years of life as a potential predictor for adult obesity was assessed. To identify the period (7–11 years, 11–16 years and 16–23 years) and type of anthropometric measure difference (weight, height and body mass index (BMI) gains) accounting for the best prediction of obesity at 33 years.

Subjects/Methods:

 

A total of 4952 members of the 1958 British birth cohort with full information on anthropometric measures. Follow-up examinations at 7, 11, 16, 23 and 33 years were analyzed with receiver-operating characteristics (ROCs).

Results:

 

Overall 505 cohort members (10.2%) were obese at 33 years. BMI and weight gains between 7 and 11 years were the best-observed predictors for obesity at 33 years with an area under the ROC curve of 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69; 0.74) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.71; 0.76), respectively. Height gain failed as a significant predictor at any lifetime interval. BMI gain between 7 and 11 years yielded a positive predictive value of 20% (95% CI: 19; 21) compared to 19% (95% CI: 18; 20) for weight gain. The prediction of BMI and weight gains between 7 and 11 years seemed to be unrelated to sex and the onset of puberty.

Conclusions:

 

High weight or BMI gain from 7 to 11 years should be considered as risk factor of later obesity. These predictors combined with others might allow for targeting preventive measures at a high-risk sub-population.

Keywords:

body weights and measures, puberty, growth and development, nutritional and metabolic diseases, ROC curve, prognosis

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