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Changes in groundwater chemistry before two consecutive earthquakes in Iceland

Nature Geoscience volume 7, pages 752–756 (2014)Cite this article

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Abstract

Groundwater chemistry has been observed to change before earthquakes and is proposed as a precursor signal. Such changes include variations in radon count rates1,2, concentrations of dissolved elements3,4,5 and stable isotope ratios4,5. Changes in seismic wave velocities6, water levels in boreholes7, micro-seismicity8 and shear wave splitting9 are also thought to precede earthquakes. Precursor activity has been attributed to expansion of rock volume7,10,11. However, most studies of precursory phenomena lack sufficient data to rule out other explanations unrelated to earthquakes12. For example, reproducibility of a precursor signal has seldom been shown and few precursors have been evaluated statistically. Here we analyse the stable isotope ratios and dissolved element concentrations of groundwater taken from a borehole in northern Iceland between 2008 and 2013. We find that the chemistry of the groundwater changed four to six months before two greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred in October 2012 and April 2013. Statistical analyses indicate that the changes in groundwater chemistry were associated with the earthquakes. We suggest that the changes were caused by crustal dilation associated with stress build-up before each earthquake, which caused different groundwater components to mix. Although the changes we detect are specific for the site in Iceland, we infer that similar processes may be active elsewhere, and that groundwater chemistry is a promising target for future studies on the predictability of earthquakes.

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Figure 1: Tectonic map of northern Iceland.
Figure 2: δ18O–δ2H plot for groundwater samples from Hafralækur.
Figure 3: Time series for deviation of δ2H from −126.6 ± 2.7‰, deviation of δ18O from GMWL, and Na, Si and Ca concentrations.

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Acknowledgements

L. Claesson Liljedahl is acknowledged for initiating our groundwater measurement campaign in northern Iceland. S. Ingebritsen and M. Leybourne are thanked for insightful and constructive reviews.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geological Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden

    Alasdair Skelton, Margareta Andrén, Gabrielle Stockmann, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Helga Rakel Guðrúnardóttir & Heike Siegmund

  2. University of Akureyri, 600 Akureyri, Iceland

    Hrefna Kristmannsdóttir

  3. Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavík, Iceland

    Árny Sveinbjörnsdóttir

  4. King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia

    Sigurjón Jónsson

  5. Department of Earth Sciences, Gothenburg University, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden

    Erik Sturkell

  6. Landsvirkjun, 103 Reykjavík, Iceland

    Hreinn Hjartarson

  7. Karolinska Institutet, 171 76 Stockholm, Sweden

    Ingrid Kockum

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  1. Alasdair Skelton
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Contributions

A.S. conceived the project design; H.K., Á.S. and H.R.G. provided expertise on water–rock interaction in Iceland; H.H. collected the samples; M.A., C-M.M. and H.S. performed the chemical analyses; G.S. and M.A. performed the PHREEQCI modelling; S.J. and E.S. provided expertise on seismicity; I.K. performed the statistical analysis. A.S. wrote the paper with input from all co-authors.

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Correspondence to Alasdair Skelton.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Skelton, A., Andrén, M., Kristmannsdóttir, H. et al. Changes in groundwater chemistry before two consecutive earthquakes in Iceland. Nature Geosci 7, 752–756 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2250

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