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A route to more tractable expert advice

Nature volume 463, pages 294–295 (2010)Cite this article

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There are mathematically advanced ways to weigh and pool scientific advice. They should be used more to quantify uncertainty and improve decision-making, says Willy Aspinall.

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Figure 1: Estimates from 11 experts of the time-to-failure of an earth dam, once the core starts to leak.

SOURCE: A. J. BROWN & W. P. ASPINALL PROC. 13TH BIENNIAL BRIT. DAMS SOC. CONF. (2004)

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Willy Aspinall is Cabot professor of natural hazards and risk science at Bristol University, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK. He provides expert elicitation services through his company Aspinall & Associates, Cleveland House, High Street, Tisbury SP3 6HF, UK. Willy.Aspinall@Bristol.ac.uk ,

    Willy Aspinall

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  1. Willy Aspinall
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Aspinall, W. A route to more tractable expert advice. Nature 463, 294–295 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1038/463294a

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